From our resident cancel culture advocate for whom two plus two equals five. Stick to discussing the facts.From our resident Russia apologist
Fuel Price
- Thread starter Russell Hall
- Start date
God I hope not... None of my friends will be there. Also, I don't look good in white....
some think they will .....
That is somewhat factual, but not entirely.
The USA remains self sufficient in oil, and there are no shortages of oil there. It became 'oil independent' again in 2019, but that had nothing whatsoever to do with Trump. OTOH, it has everything to do with oil and gas fracking.
The price of crude hit its highest since the Ukraine war started, about 2 weeks after the commencement. That had nothing to do with oil embargos. It came very close yesterday after the EU embargo plan, but saying it is high due to sanctions is not entirely true.
But it is part of a world market so the product sells at a world price.
Just as coal in Australia, which does not lack coal, is more expensive domestically due to offshore factors.
India imports almost no gas and very little oil from Russia.
China is a more significant customer but we are still only talking 15% of oil imports, and 5% of gas.
Yes, Russia is selling oil to a few at heavy discounts, but only relative to the hugely inflated world price, so "cheap" is a bit of a stretch.
Is it "plentiful"? Well, no, as the above % show, Russian oil exports to India are almost nil, and significant but still a small %, to China.
Explainer: How much oil, gas and coal India imports from Russia - Times of India
India Business News: India accounts for about 0.2% Russia's natural gas exports. GAIL (India) Ltd has a 20-year deal with Gazprom to buy 2.5 million tonnes of LNG a year w
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Re the video in the earlier post; I have watched some of this chaps videos and he is a whinging, fabricating, greenie wanker, whose videos are laced with alternative facts, and highly unobjective, emotive language.
I wouldn't trust a single word he says.
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Fact. Indian imports of oil from Russia averaged 960,000 barrels per month during 2021. In April this year they imported 7.2 million barrels. In May 24 million barrels. Since Feb a total of 34 million barrels. A significant trade that has increased by a factor of 25, constrained only by tanker availability. Not "almost nil". India is also seeking long term LNG contracts with Russia but Russian production is committed years ahead.
America is short of oil and even resorting to tactics some call piracy to obtain it. They also imported a significant quanity from Russia in March. If only Francis Drake had learned to shout "sanctions" when boarding a galleon at sea to steal its treasure. They have made embarrassing political backdowns to access oil. And aggressive military action to protect their oil interests. America has forestalled a supply crisis by releasing stockpiles, most recently a million barrel East Coast emergency heating reserve. Real shortages are very likely in coming months, exacerbated by refinery closures during covid that became permanent. Watch this space.
The oil price jumped in response to the Ukraine war and threats of trade disruption which came to pass. The stated idea behind the sanctions was to totally stop Russian exports and so cut off 12% of the worlds oil supply. Hence the spike in prices. But world oil production is only marginally down. The world oil trade has been redirected with much Russian production going to Asia. A two tiered oil trading system with plentiful cheap oil traded in convertible local currencies to the BRICS countries. Europe has continued to import Russian oil and refined diesel in large quantities. If as seems likely Europe does begin to seek its oil elsewhere it will further add to the difference between the two oil and energy trading systems.
If sanctions didn't affect the oil price our oil refiners could order 2 million barrels of Russian oil probably already at sea at todays spot price of $US 85.11 a barrel and our fuel price could be back to last year. Of course sanctions affect the oil price and much beyond. They have opened Pandora's box. We may not like what comes out.
America is short of oil and even resorting to tactics some call piracy to obtain it. They also imported a significant quanity from Russia in March. If only Francis Drake had learned to shout "sanctions" when boarding a galleon at sea to steal its treasure. They have made embarrassing political backdowns to access oil. And aggressive military action to protect their oil interests. America has forestalled a supply crisis by releasing stockpiles, most recently a million barrel East Coast emergency heating reserve. Real shortages are very likely in coming months, exacerbated by refinery closures during covid that became permanent. Watch this space.
The oil price jumped in response to the Ukraine war and threats of trade disruption which came to pass. The stated idea behind the sanctions was to totally stop Russian exports and so cut off 12% of the worlds oil supply. Hence the spike in prices. But world oil production is only marginally down. The world oil trade has been redirected with much Russian production going to Asia. A two tiered oil trading system with plentiful cheap oil traded in convertible local currencies to the BRICS countries. Europe has continued to import Russian oil and refined diesel in large quantities. If as seems likely Europe does begin to seek its oil elsewhere it will further add to the difference between the two oil and energy trading systems.
If sanctions didn't affect the oil price our oil refiners could order 2 million barrels of Russian oil probably already at sea at todays spot price of $US 85.11 a barrel and our fuel price could be back to last year. Of course sanctions affect the oil price and much beyond. They have opened Pandora's box. We may not like what comes out.
I knew you'd appreciate that
So glad we have your rational and objective wisdom to steer us, never mind what the whole energy industry thinks
From the linked article:
"India imported 43,400 bpd oil from Russia in 2021, about 1% of its total imports"
So that 43,400 x 365 x 100 for total annual. That is 1,584 million barrels. India has raised Russian imports from effectively zero, to 7.2 mb, and that was spread over 3 months. That 7.2mb is about 2% of total. They are buying that at I gather, about a 25% discount from the prevailing world price. Not really a game changer, is it?
from the rather right wing Forbes magazine...
"Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
Robert RapierSenior Contributor
Mar 8, 2022,01:45pm EST
Last December I covered the nuances of U.S. energy independence. A common belief that I encounter is that President Trump made us energy independent, but we lost that energy independence under President Biden.
That’s not strictly true, but it requires a bit of understanding about what energy independence actually is.
------------------------
But it’s safe to say — at least per this particular way of measuring energy independence (which is consistent with how the EIA measures is) — the U.S. is still energy independent."
www.forbes.com
"Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
Robert RapierSenior Contributor
Mar 8, 2022,01:45pm EST
Last December I covered the nuances of U.S. energy independence. A common belief that I encounter is that President Trump made us energy independent, but we lost that energy independence under President Biden.
That’s not strictly true, but it requires a bit of understanding about what energy independence actually is.
------------------------
But it’s safe to say — at least per this particular way of measuring energy independence (which is consistent with how the EIA measures is) — the U.S. is still energy independent."
Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
The Energy Information Administration recently posted December export numbers that showed the U.S remained energy independent in 2021.
www.forbes.com
If you notice the rate of import has increased each month since February so that May was nearly 800,000 barrels a day. Not sure what world you live in but that's a significant shift, particularly as its backed up by Indian investments in the Russian oil industry. Game changer? Whose game is that? Of Indian consumption of 4.4 million barrels a day nearly 800,000 barrels are now Russian oil in a steeply rising trajectory. The only constraint on this rise is reassignment of the tanker fleet. Partly overcome by transhipping to larger tankers at sea.
Of course Biden's America is energy independent. It was a hallucination I had around this time last year that six Russian tankers sailed in convoy bringing millions of litres of diesel to the American East Coast because America was a whisker from running out.from the rather right wing Forbes magazine...
"Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
Robert RapierSenior Contributor
Mar 8, 2022,01:45pm EST
Last December I covered the nuances of U.S. energy independence. A common belief that I encounter is that President Trump made us energy independent, but we lost that energy independence under President Biden.
That’s not strictly true, but it requires a bit of understanding about what energy independence actually is.
------------------------
But it’s safe to say — at least per this particular way of measuring energy independence (which is consistent with how the EIA measures is) — the U.S. is still energy independent."
Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
The Energy Information Administration recently posted December export numbers that showed the U.S remained energy independent in 2021.
No I'm trying to keep it on a sober analysis of where fuel prices are going and the complex interaction of forces that are in play but you seem to want to play your nit picking silliness. We don't know where things are going to end up but to deny attempts to remove 12% of world oil production from the world market by sanctions hasn't had a major influence on fuel prices is naive. We are moving into an energy crisis as serious as 1973. Of which rising fuel prices are a major part. I would have thought it was worth watching. Easier to sit back and ooh and ahh at the news reports I suppose. Good luck.
I'll leave this thread with the comment made yesterday in Der Spiegel by Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.
"The current energy crisis could be one of the worst and longest in history and Europe will be hit particularly hard..... The fallout from the Ukraine will make the crisis worse.... 1973 was all about oil but now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis all at the same time ...... Previously Russia was the cornerstone of the international energy system....."
Keep an eye on how Australia approaches the situation but fuel price may not be our only problem.
"The current energy crisis could be one of the worst and longest in history and Europe will be hit particularly hard..... The fallout from the Ukraine will make the crisis worse.... 1973 was all about oil but now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis all at the same time ...... Previously Russia was the cornerstone of the international energy system....."
Keep an eye on how Australia approaches the situation but fuel price may not be our only problem.
What's the solution? Kiss and make up with Putin?
Every time Australia has followed others in a whipped up hysteria into sanctions (and even wars) our country has lost badly as a result. We have sanctioned and even attacked countries that were valuable trading partners. At the end of things our great and powerful friend usually takes our previously hard won market. The grain sanctions of 1980 that stuffed the world grain market for a decade, the 2014 sanctions on Russia where the EU repaid us by trashing our dairy markets, the sweet Iranian trade we used to have closed at the behest of others, our invasion and destruction of a reliable trading partner (Iraq) for no reason, the profitable dry land farming deal with SA Ag and Libya dumped, the list goes on. Of course Australia will continue to follow others against our national interest, it's in our DNA and only once was it challenged. The west prefers the moral purity of Saudi oil where their war only kills brown children (half a million by UN estimates).
But that's not the point here. That's just my opinion. Here I'm trying to follow the shift in the world fuel market which is threatening to develop into a 1973 type fuel shock for some countries with shortage and soaring price. To try to pretend sanctions imposed upon the country Birol described as the cornerstone of the international energy system is not a major contributor to the crisis is not realistic. That is not a comment upon whether sanctions should be imposed or not on this or that country but upon the effect of them. Even the professional oil price commentators are worried as to where the trade is going. People should understand why their fuel prices are rising.
It is better not to continue this thread because it will draw in political discussion. Let's hope our leaders are skilled enough to ensure our country has uninterrupted supplies of fuel because the alternative isn't pretty.
But that's not the point here. That's just my opinion. Here I'm trying to follow the shift in the world fuel market which is threatening to develop into a 1973 type fuel shock for some countries with shortage and soaring price. To try to pretend sanctions imposed upon the country Birol described as the cornerstone of the international energy system is not a major contributor to the crisis is not realistic. That is not a comment upon whether sanctions should be imposed or not on this or that country but upon the effect of them. Even the professional oil price commentators are worried as to where the trade is going. People should understand why their fuel prices are rising.
It is better not to continue this thread because it will draw in political discussion. Let's hope our leaders are skilled enough to ensure our country has uninterrupted supplies of fuel because the alternative isn't pretty.
It looks fairly clear that domestic petrol prices will be in mid $2 range in the short term.
OPEC+, however, does have options. One would think Saudi Arabia would be only too happy to increase output at these prices.
Oil Falls on Reports Saudi Prepared to Boost Output, Biden Visit
2022-06-02 08:42:47.633 GMT
By Elizabeth Low
(Bloomberg) -- Oil dropped below $113.50 a barrel following
reports US President Joe Biden is likely to visit Saudi Arabia
this month and that the kingdom is ready to pump more crude
should Russian output decline substantially due to increasing
sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell more than 3% before
paring some of those losses, while Brent traded under $112.50.
The decrease follows a steep rise in prices last month and
comes amid signs that the strained relationship between Saudi
Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, and the US is
improving.
Biden will almost inevitably meet de facto Saudi ruler
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who he has so far shunned, if
he does travel to the country. That may pave the way for a
production boost from the kingdom and help lower US fuel prices,
which have soared to record highs, putting pressure on Biden
ahead of November’s mid-term elections.
The Financial Times reported Riyadh had indicated to
Western allies that it’s prepared to increase oil supply.
The news comes ahead of a monthly OPEC+ meeting on
Thursday.
There have been talks about an immediate supply boost from
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could be
announced at the OPEC+ gathering, though nothing has been
finalized, the FT reported. Output increases scheduled for
September might be brought forward to July and August, it said.
The Wall Street Journal also reported this week that some OPEC
members were discussing exempting Russia from their oil-
production agreement.
“The downward trajectory for oil boils down to just how
deep OPEC is willing to dip into its spare capacity without
entirely turning their back on Russia,” said Stephen Innes,
managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “A shift in strategy,
even a slow drip response, brings a new downside risk for oil.”
WTI for July delivery was 2.4% lower at $112.51 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:39 a.m. in London after
falling as much as 3.1% earlier.Brent for August settlement lost
2.5% to $113.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
If the Saudis do pump more it would be a turnaround. The
kingdom’s foreign minister said last week that there was nothing
more it could do to tame oil markets, and even suggested there
was no shortfall of crude. OPEC+ was expected to rubber-stamp a
production boost of 430,000 barrels a day for next month,
although the alliance has struggled to meet its targets in
recent months.
It is now possible that the 23-nation group accelerates its
monthly increases, according to RBC Capital Markets.
“While we initially thought such a policy shift would
likely coincide with a meeting between President Biden and Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we now believe that the expiration
of the OPEC+ agreement could potentially come at tomorrow’s
ministerial meeting,” RBC strategists including Helima Croft
said in a note late on Wednesday. “The remaining barrels could
be added back in July and August.”
Oil capped a sixth monthly advance in May, the best winning
streak since early 2011, as tightening markets because of the
war in Ukraine coincided with a recovery in demand as countries
threw off virus restrictions. European Union efforts to approve
a partial ban on Russian oil imports hit an obstacle after
Hungary raised new or already rejected demands.
OPEC+, however, does have options. One would think Saudi Arabia would be only too happy to increase output at these prices.
Oil Falls on Reports Saudi Prepared to Boost Output, Biden Visit
2022-06-02 08:42:47.633 GMT
By Elizabeth Low
(Bloomberg) -- Oil dropped below $113.50 a barrel following
reports US President Joe Biden is likely to visit Saudi Arabia
this month and that the kingdom is ready to pump more crude
should Russian output decline substantially due to increasing
sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell more than 3% before
paring some of those losses, while Brent traded under $112.50.
The decrease follows a steep rise in prices last month and
comes amid signs that the strained relationship between Saudi
Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, and the US is
improving.
Biden will almost inevitably meet de facto Saudi ruler
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who he has so far shunned, if
he does travel to the country. That may pave the way for a
production boost from the kingdom and help lower US fuel prices,
which have soared to record highs, putting pressure on Biden
ahead of November’s mid-term elections.
The Financial Times reported Riyadh had indicated to
Western allies that it’s prepared to increase oil supply.
The news comes ahead of a monthly OPEC+ meeting on
Thursday.
There have been talks about an immediate supply boost from
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could be
announced at the OPEC+ gathering, though nothing has been
finalized, the FT reported. Output increases scheduled for
September might be brought forward to July and August, it said.
The Wall Street Journal also reported this week that some OPEC
members were discussing exempting Russia from their oil-
production agreement.
“The downward trajectory for oil boils down to just how
deep OPEC is willing to dip into its spare capacity without
entirely turning their back on Russia,” said Stephen Innes,
managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “A shift in strategy,
even a slow drip response, brings a new downside risk for oil.”
WTI for July delivery was 2.4% lower at $112.51 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:39 a.m. in London after
falling as much as 3.1% earlier.Brent for August settlement lost
2.5% to $113.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
If the Saudis do pump more it would be a turnaround. The
kingdom’s foreign minister said last week that there was nothing
more it could do to tame oil markets, and even suggested there
was no shortfall of crude. OPEC+ was expected to rubber-stamp a
production boost of 430,000 barrels a day for next month,
although the alliance has struggled to meet its targets in
recent months.
It is now possible that the 23-nation group accelerates its
monthly increases, according to RBC Capital Markets.
“While we initially thought such a policy shift would
likely coincide with a meeting between President Biden and Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we now believe that the expiration
of the OPEC+ agreement could potentially come at tomorrow’s
ministerial meeting,” RBC strategists including Helima Croft
said in a note late on Wednesday. “The remaining barrels could
be added back in July and August.”
Oil capped a sixth monthly advance in May, the best winning
streak since early 2011, as tightening markets because of the
war in Ukraine coincided with a recovery in demand as countries
threw off virus restrictions. European Union efforts to approve
a partial ban on Russian oil imports hit an obstacle after
Hungary raised new or already rejected demands.
I'm not sure that Saudi Arabia has any spare production to increase. They are already pumping their existing wells full of seawater to stop their production from collapsing. Remember Hubberts curve?
The proposed OPEC oil production increase is 648,000 barrels per day. That'll really replace the 11 million barrels per day of Russian production the sanctions regime is supposed to block from the market.
There are reasons why the Saudis are not rushing to increase production. The first is the poisonous relations between the Crown Prince and Biden who made comments about him and what he would do to him during the American election campaign so that the Prince refused Presidential phone calls.
Second is that OPEC had deliberately restricted production during covid to restore the oil price to viable levels. It is not quick to restart stopped wells nor is it in Saudi interest to effectively increase production but reduce their profits. Oil companies and oil producers are all making record prices at the present price level.
Remember Saudi is involved in a vicious American armed war against the Houthi people in Yemen that has threatened to spread to their export ports.
There is a simmering dispute between America and Iran over the seizure of Iranian cargoes that if it escalates will endanger Gulf passage through the Straits of Hormuz.
Oil production and trading is complex and only simple to internet experts. Some think India is not buying much Russian oil. As I see the June daily Indian import figures Russia is providing close to 20% of Indian demand this month. The markets are digesting the latest round of EU oil sanctions and they are not assessed as overly severe, the ban is only partial and not immediately implemented nor are they restrictive of the work arounds the industry has at present to maintain oil supplies despite political sanctions. There is talk of considerable leakage of oil past the sanctions so that Russian oil is being rebranded or shandied and going to surprising destinations like the EU and the U.S. Rather cheekily bought at discount and sold at full price. Refined fuel is untraceable as to source. The oil industry remains pessimistic as to future supply and prices. China has won its present bout against covid and a return to full production will put pressure on oil supplies. For their part, some Russian oil industry Lukoil experts want to reduce production to push the price up but it seems Rosneft will bring new wells on line by July to meet demand. As to Australian prices, we'll have to see how the current world shortage of refined diesel develops and where we get our fuel from.
There are reasons why the Saudis are not rushing to increase production. The first is the poisonous relations between the Crown Prince and Biden who made comments about him and what he would do to him during the American election campaign so that the Prince refused Presidential phone calls.
Second is that OPEC had deliberately restricted production during covid to restore the oil price to viable levels. It is not quick to restart stopped wells nor is it in Saudi interest to effectively increase production but reduce their profits. Oil companies and oil producers are all making record prices at the present price level.
Remember Saudi is involved in a vicious American armed war against the Houthi people in Yemen that has threatened to spread to their export ports.
There is a simmering dispute between America and Iran over the seizure of Iranian cargoes that if it escalates will endanger Gulf passage through the Straits of Hormuz.
Oil production and trading is complex and only simple to internet experts. Some think India is not buying much Russian oil. As I see the June daily Indian import figures Russia is providing close to 20% of Indian demand this month. The markets are digesting the latest round of EU oil sanctions and they are not assessed as overly severe, the ban is only partial and not immediately implemented nor are they restrictive of the work arounds the industry has at present to maintain oil supplies despite political sanctions. There is talk of considerable leakage of oil past the sanctions so that Russian oil is being rebranded or shandied and going to surprising destinations like the EU and the U.S. Rather cheekily bought at discount and sold at full price. Refined fuel is untraceable as to source. The oil industry remains pessimistic as to future supply and prices. China has won its present bout against covid and a return to full production will put pressure on oil supplies. For their part, some Russian oil industry Lukoil experts want to reduce production to push the price up but it seems Rosneft will bring new wells on line by July to meet demand. As to Australian prices, we'll have to see how the current world shortage of refined diesel develops and where we get our fuel from.
They say they have spare capacity.
After all, not pumping at 100% capacity is why there is an OPEC+ agreement in the first place.
I believe pumping water in is simply to exact all the product.