Oil plunge 30% today, Brent $US 31.50 a barrel, some sales down to $28. Cheap fuel on the way? Or big profits for oil companies. Meanwhile Australia is close to signing a deal that would mean we have given up on a domestic reserve but will have access to the American reserve. Showing that the lessons of history are not remembered long.
Victorian Fuel pricing trends Versus Queensland or other states.
- Thread starter Kenfuego
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I have been watching this development for some days now on my other favourite site, and on the 5th of March another great site "The Chiefio" had a post up. https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/05/stocks-oil/
He was a high powered market analyst in "another life" and has a good grasp of the world commodity market and humbly now trying to live a much simpler life, with self sufficient needs uppermost almost a would be American prepper in outlook! I am waiting for his update on the latest crash downwards, some of the TV pundits say 60% temporarily wiped off the US stock market overnight, be interested in seeing where this goes, The bottom fishing will separate the amateur investors from the long term professionals. There will be bargains to be had if you wait till the right time to acquire shares.
Some definite heartache for others though as they see share prices plummet.
My son loves his share portfolio, so a sad day for him.
Probably the greatest chance of a profit in times like this - and also the chance of a ruinous loss. It certainly tests the quality of shares. Some will pick the bottom.
Saudi and Russia in a price war and that's not mentioning dodgy loads of Iranian oil.
Saudi and Russia in a price war and that's not mentioning dodgy loads of Iranian oil.
Yep they can't just eat oil, it needs to be traded if only to get food staples. But wait till after the crisis passes, some will make big profits. So we will pay the price..
Ken
Ken
The Russians are threatening to operate down to $US25 a barrel to see out the Saudi discounts. That's nearly where it was mid 1980's although it collapsed to under $US10 a barrel in 1986. The losers in this will be the oil shale producers and that huge Canadian tar sands project. We should see $1 a litre fuel again but will we?
Costco don't have 95 RON but I filled up the Laguna today with 98 (it likes that stuff!) and it was 134.7 a litre, Ulp 91 was 118.7 and Diesel 123.7 a litre that seemed a bit below the other majors. I guess this trickle down to the pump and looking at the cars lined up for fuel, plenty of buyers willing to buy fuel. The internet blogs are guessing where the pump prices will go, is that good for economies and even embryonic conspiracy theories and some warning that China is banking on their economy recovering and a few elderly Chinese deaths are expendable collateral and with their system easily concealed, no barrier to their economic recovery. the is it Russia or is it the Saudi's who want to destroy the Shale oil buffer the USA is selling into the world market?
Well everyone is expecting the crude prices to fall further, just how far, it depends upon lots of theories. Will this combined threat kill Tesla, it has some economic sniffles, but Musk might just use it to buy back more shares or some other stunt - who knows.
Happy motoring on lower fuel prices.
Ken
Hope everyone is benefitting from the lower prices
Filled the Koleos today @1.329/ltr but after discount came to $1.289/ltr.
ULP varies but is under $1.20/ltr (between $1.17 to $1.199).
With such low prices, it make one want to rush out and get a V8 lard rover or other gas-guzzler.
Then maybe not.
Whether fuel is $1.20/ltr or $1.80/ltr you buy it when your tank is empty, it's not a luxury that you buy or not buy on a whim.
ULP varies but is under $1.20/ltr (between $1.17 to $1.199).
With such low prices, it make one want to rush out and get a V8 lard rover or other gas-guzzler.
Then maybe not.
Whether fuel is $1.20/ltr or $1.80/ltr you buy it when your tank is empty, it's not a luxury that you buy or not buy on a whim.
Buying fuel 1200 litres at a time might seem to give a price buffer but it's no different to filling the car tank, the fuel truck comes once a month if the price is low or high. I don't even know the price until the account comes the next month. In the country the price is always high and doesn't have the discounts city motorists chase. A reality of rural life that people have given up trying to correct. The South East of South Australia and far Western Victoria are almost separate states as far as pricing goes.
I can sympathise with the way farmers are treated, In my youth we used to fill the old Willy's Whippet when we left the Farm at Rainbow as the petrol was so much cheaper than the bulk fill and that was one of the reasons I was rather surprised that in 1977 while visiting in Michigan the Farmer husband of my good lady's penfriend (since childhood regular exchanges of letters between them) took us for a tour of Michigan sites and at every opportunity he would fill or top up the tank of the family car as the pump prices were much lower that he could ever buy to replenish the farm bulk tanks.
I remember we had quite a discussion as to this as I felt that farmers should have been getting better bulk purchase pricing - didn't the American oil companies and the government of the day value the farmers input to the economy. He just shrugged his shoulders and told me the farmers were powerless and got ripped off with fuel, fertiliser, chemicals and suchlike to grow their crops, process milk and all to feed city folk who objected to any attempt to recover those costs! In those days I envied all the tools that were made in America, and the catalogues of all sorts of wonderful bargains for the DIY that they got delivered to the door - everything by efficient mail order, so different to the Australia of that time so even though they were getting ripped off the quality of the products and service seemed superb.
When we last visited the American produced tools and equipment and small farming equipment seem to be sourced in Japan or China, whole cities were falling into disrepair and Detroit a shadow of its former self. Not only that Dutch immigrant farmers were creating super dairy farms merging six properties into one, Kids were no longer expecting to by employed on their parents farms.
Not easy being a farmer anywhere these days.
Anyway today I topped up the Megane with Diesel at 123.7 a litre and that is better than the 143.9 for diesel at Shell Bundoora and the 145.9 for Diesel at the BP garage nearby a whole 20.2 cents LESS per litre in the case of shell customers. and 22.2 cents LESS in the case of BP diesel buying customers. compared with Costco.
Still no T.P. at Costco, but we also got one of our tyres repaired FREE under their lifetime tyre guarantee, it had a slow leak from a puncture.
Not so much a crush or evidence of herd mentality at the cash registers. Crisis over or common sense returning.?
Hope you get good return on the harvest Russell and that we all get lower fuel prices, though it seems some are dragging the chain..
Ken
so all is well and the service was very friendly.
Speculation in the world press that the real target of the price cuts is the American shale industry which is not viable at present price levels. Reduced travel and tourism in the present environment will be lowering demand anyway.
I had a look at the price cycle during the week and filled up - seemed like a good time to buy.
motormouth.com.au
Sydney and Melbourne price cycles seem to be in sync at the moment.
Really - just keep an eye on prices and fill up when the price is low - other wise use dollar cost averaging when you see that the fuel prices are higher.
Cheers
Justin
motormouth.com.au
Sydney and Melbourne price cycles seem to be in sync at the moment.
Really - just keep an eye on prices and fill up when the price is low - other wise use dollar cost averaging when you see that the fuel prices are higher.
Cheers
Justin
President Trump has ordered that the American strategic reserve be topped up with as much cheap oil as possible. They have a reserve of 635 million barrels. Australia no longer has a strategic oil reserve and is considered to have less than 28 days supply of fuel in the country.
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Not true anymore, I always wait until I get out of Melbourne, unless we are at the bottom of a price cycle. Cheapest fuel for a while was the Maryborough United.
Unfortunately discounting doesn't extend to the more remote areas. There was always discounting in Ballarat and along the Western Highway. It's as if there is a cut-off point of distance.
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The Saudis need $50 a barrel or so keep afloat, what have they done with the untold trillions of dollars of revenue over the past 50 years? Complete economic mismanagement.
I think many Americans could answer that after watching Saudi princes gaudily decorate expensive real estate and splash cash that virtually devalued the premium property markets and of course financing other despots and fomenting trouble or buying off rivals, or even renting tankers for cartel activity must be expensive and only a few years back whenever the Saudi elite travelled they used to hand out solid gold Swiss watches as tips.
I don't envy that sort of existence, imagine how many food tasters are required to prevent poisoning by jealous relatives and competitors..
Diesel at Apco in Bendigo was 121.9 cents a litre, didn't buy any as I had sufficient on board - I read in the papers that there is a great scream about increased pricing at Melbourne's pumps when International crude is tanking. Brent was reported at its lowest $29.10 a barrel. Down 3.2% on the day Down 57% on last year. Trump is apparently buying cheap crude into their American Strategic reserve as a steadying platform, so that has slowed but not stopped the slump worldwide.
So support those that support motorists with keen pricing at the pump.!!
Hope your local price is better for competition
Ken
So support those that support motorists with keen pricing at the pump.!!
Hope your local price is better for competition
Ken
Try tracing where that fuel has come from! Supposedly we get most from Singapore refineries but shipments come from China and other countries. Fuel is wonderfully untraceable as to origin. All shipped by tankers with low priced crews.
Well the low prices certainly didn't last, ULP at the locals is up to around $139.9.
Still relatively low but up about 20c/ltr since the beginning of the week.
Still relatively low but up about 20c/ltr since the beginning of the week.
Purchased Diesel at Costco Epping, Pleased to see that the Diesel was lower than the APCO Bendigo price noted on the way up (121.9) but this afternoon The pump price at COSTCO was Diesel 117.7 cents a litre 98 RON was 126.7 cents a litre and Ulp 91 RON was 111.7 cents a litre.
LPG
In Echuca we saw LPG at a high of 89 cents in Heathcote it ranged from 66 cents (Caltex) 86 cents ( BP) and 84 at the independent. I hope LPG users picked wisely today. As far as I know there is no real difference between brands, but then I don't use the stuff.
Australian dollar slipping in value
Hopefully you all got better than that, though the Australian Dollar is very volatile as traders flock to the safety of the American Dollar, as that seems to be handling the crisis better than any.
Regards
Ken
LPG
In Echuca we saw LPG at a high of 89 cents in Heathcote it ranged from 66 cents (Caltex) 86 cents ( BP) and 84 at the independent. I hope LPG users picked wisely today. As far as I know there is no real difference between brands, but then I don't use the stuff.
Australian dollar slipping in value
Hopefully you all got better than that, though the Australian Dollar is very volatile as traders flock to the safety of the American Dollar, as that seems to be handling the crisis better than any.
Regards
Ken