The future of the Automobile...

A world without oil, or limited supply

Transport for personal use may be the least of our problems, our ABC explains;
http://abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm

Food security, manufacturing, even housing are likely to be impacted adversly should the premise of the Catalyst story come to pass.

As for composite materials to reduce mass and improve fuel efficiency, ok but for the volumes required (http://www.azom.com/details.asp?ArticleID=1662), the idea of having a vehicle that has a basic core that remains for a decade or two with replaceable panels to keep the followers of fashion happy may be in our future. When carbon fibre was first produced in the late sixties the price for the basic high strength grade was about £200/kg. By 1996 the annual worldwide capacity had increased to about 7,000 tonnes and the price for the equivalent (high strength) grade was £15-40/kg. Fibre is good for you :clown: as for aussie mineral exports :eek: . Noticed that driving a 20yo vehicle is not a problem for those on this thread. :headbang:
With limited fuel supplies a complete new set of priorities will be set, time to get that bike out of the shed. :2cents:
 
mistareno said:
As long as that bike has a 500cc V Twin in the frame - no worries :D :D
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I had a 500 twin in the past, fun for sure :cool: all the costs for tyres and chains ( my riding style? maybe :( ) where not cheap. Modern liquid cooled 500s almost have the same power as a fuego:eek: . Now have a moped has 30cc single 2 stroke and a tiny 200w yet gets me around just fine for my local and to the city trips. No rego or special licience required, can use road or bike paths and either motor- motor and pedal or just pedal. All that power uses 40- 60km per litre :headbang: , the tank even has a reserve fuel section to get me to the bowser if I forget to fill. My door to door trips to the city are faster than the train and I live near a station, no parking charges :D Of course a car is still an essential item for me as a time saver and fun while the fuel lasts at an afforable price. Interesting power developments happening with compressed air, just need electric compressors/ pumping stations at regular intervals, regenerative braking to conserve energy and eco friendly. Do it now :D .
 
The way the arabs are behaving these days I think we're out of the car as we know it withing a few years.
No oil, no propulsion of the cars we drive today.

I hope I'm wrong though, but I see dark clouds hanging over the car...

Van
 
sw206gti said:
The way the arabs are behaving these days I think we're out of the car as we know it withing a few years.
No oil, no propulsion of the cars we drive today.

I hope I'm wrong though, but I see dark clouds hanging over the car...

Van
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Well its their oil so they can do whatever they want with it.
As oil runs out we will slowly movce to electricity i think. Hydrogen might prove to complicated and expensive.
 
mistareno said:
This is a pretty general question, but where do you see the automobile and the motor industry in general in 20 years time
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Well if we have reached Peak Oil then in 20yrs time the price of petrol/diesel will make todays' $1.20/L figure look like loose change.

There will be more hybrids and maybe hydrogen fuel cells will be close to the norm. The big issue will be old cars. At some point in the future petrol won't be available and those of us that love old cars will need to convert them.
 
mistareno said:
Where do you see the Australian Industry in 20 years time?
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Australia may have a bigger manufacturing industry as I suspect our standard of living will decrease as other nations pass us. Will we become a third world country making cheap clothes, cars, etc.
 
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CHRI'S16 said:
I hope we (globally) come up for genuine use & need for used tyres, (unless some one can point out otherwise). Can't we turn em into something??
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Chris, didn't you see The New Inventors this year. Invention of the year was a guy from the Gold Coast that has invented a process that recycles all the components of a tyre.
 
Don't get your hopes up too high on fuel cells. There are a lot of precious metals in their manufacture (platinum etc.) of which there is nowhere near enough to go around. Batteries are made of nasty, nasty chemicals (both in composition and during manufacture) and there's still a waste issue when they start to die out and need replacement.

There won't be a single "silver bullet" to the transport energy problems of the future like petrol/diesel has been. There'll be a number of options out there, and each one will end up being more suited for one purpose/lifestyle or the other. One of the most obvious ones to me as far as powered personal transportation goes would be IC hydrogen cars, with the fuel created through high-output power plants (most likely nuclear). There are problems though, even without the standard nuclear energy issues. That said, let's not turn this into a nuclear debate :)

The amount of energy provided by petrol is staggering. You'd need a silly number of power plants (of whatever kind) to make up for it by electrical means (which, in turn, is the only high-volume way to get hydrogen -- it's an energy carrier, not a source..)

Plus there are issues with regard to the existing fuel infrastructure -- it's all designed for petrol, not hydrogen gas. Add to that the safety concerns. I do remember reading an article late last year though (can I say 'last year' already? ;) ) that scientists have developed a way to store hydrogen in a pellet form, which would solve a lot of the safety aspects about the fuel. Maybe they can work out a liquid carrier so fuel bowsers etc can still be used?

As far as the cars themselves, I'd expect the commoditisation of cars to continue.. we see it already with platform- or outright car-sharing (like the Cit/Pug/Toyota little thing, the VAG cars, Holdaewoos, etc.), and it'll continue to the point where the differences between cars will more and more only be skin deep.

There'll still be a lot of innovation, but it'll be in the form of smaller, lighter, safer, more efficient.. rather than more exciting. Maybe not though, I've heard from SMART car owners that they're a real hoot to drive :confused: :cool:

Now enough about cars, what about the roads. Has anyone thought what congestion will be like in 15-20 years, given current growth patterns? Parking? Toll costs? :eek:
 
kermit said:
Chris, didn't you see The New Inventors this year. Invention of the year was a guy from the Gold Coast that has invented a process that recycles all the components of a tyre.
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No, don't really get home in time to watch, or has enough interest to buy VCR blank tape.
What did he do with them.....? have you got a link or something we can look at. - Chris
 
diesel hybrid

I've always wondered why thye make hybrids with petrol engines when a diesel hybrid seems to make much more sense. A small diesel engine that either charges batteries which in turn power electric motors. Or, a small diesel that performs electrolysis to make the hydrogen to power a fuel cell? THe only thing I know for sure is that in 20 years, I'll still be driving my 404 ute, powered by bio-diesel and propane!:party:
 
Good question. Is a petrol motor lighter, quieter, smoother, cheaper, easier to start and stop perhaps? I suppose you don't need the better torque characteristics of diesel so much in a hybrid also, so maybe there's less of an economy/efficiency advantage.
 
kermit said:
Try this:
http://www.abc.net.au/newinventors/
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Holy F$%C&!!! why isn't anyone buying this mans invention and going BIG time, there are millions of stock piles at hand and really can't see why a big corporate hasn't invested in this!... Were is Visy, Galloway & Ecolab, i'd be taking this process to the US & Japan!!! - Chris

ps.... i think its brilliant.
 
downunderyank said:
I've always wondered why thye make hybrids with petrol engines when a diesel hybrid seems to make much more sense.
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Look at who is actually making the hybrids, they are Japanese and they don't have a history of making diesels.
 
Diesel - the next step?

Some great insights here - its hard to stare in the Crystal ball and determine what will influence how we will get around in the next Decade and after.

I honestly think High efficiency Diesel Engines will be the stop gap measure leading into battery electric vehicles. Variable compression HCCI otto/diesels will run with multi grade fuels, and should prove to be quiter, cleaner and more liveable overall than the current diesel offerings. The fundemental advantage of the diesel motor is the carnot cycle - the specific fuel consumption is lower than the otto engine ( about .24 Kg fuel per KWatt Hour. compared to .3 for petrol). So Diesel engines have the underlying advantage from the start.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_cycle#Diesel_vs_Otto_cycle

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/auto_technology/1266656.html

As suggested in other comments - the diesel engine will take off in Australia probably after Europe and Asia but I believe diesels will finally find a perch in Aus. The VW Passat, Golf, Mercedes 300D and Diesel Gemini may of been 30 years ahead of there time!

Another comment that does make sense; are Diesel Hybrids - although it's true that the advantage of a diesel is the fact that can meter fuel as needed through all engine speeds - it could be argued that a constant speed otto engine can almost meet the diesel in efficiency - almost.

So after Diesel and Hybrid cars, perhaps Electric cars will become the norm (at last!). Some argue Fuel cells but there has been some great advances in battery efficiency and this is bound to continue - as suggested; a swap out of the battery pack (BatPaks?) may be a common occurance at Service stations in the future.

Car safety will continue to dominate design driven both by government legislation and by modern man's increasing desire to stay alive in the material world. Even American manufacturers are seriously considering this design aspect.

Not only passive and active safety as we know it but a new field of safety research is currently being undertaken by Governments, OEM suppliers and the auto makers themselves. This is research into "hands on wheel" safety. The goal is to control the car, utilise the mobile phone and provide destination entry to the Navigation systems via Speech Recognition. Text to Speech and Heads-up displays will compliment this voice based technology allowing the driver the "communicate" with the vehicle without ever having to take their hands off the wheel and their eyes off the road. Renault is quite advanced in this area - watch out for their 2006 / 2007 models.

Car shapes are homoginising - they are approaching the perfect shape which is both stylish and aerodynamic - yes all cars will end up looking like the infamous Citroen DS. ( 50 years ahead of its time?)

Who knows? - we should preserve this thread and compare it to the result in 10 to 20 years time - it would be thouroughly interesting reading!:wink2:

Denis
 
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