Cheap Oil... Never Again!!!
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  1. #1
    Fellow Frogger! Industrie's Avatar
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    Default Cheap Oil... Never Again!!!

    There's another thread about driving economically. Which given the cost of fuel is a socially responsible thing to do, but I say enjoy driving how you want while can. I've been doing a bit of research over the past year & the general consensus among the experts is that we will experience an oil crisis in the next 2 and a half years, max. One of the worlds largest oil producers, Chevron, even has a website devoted to the issue. Visit www.willyoujoinus.com for a look. You know it's bad when an oil company is going public.

    Australia's oil production has decreased by 40% in 4 years!!! Most other oil producing nations also have declining production. The only ones not in decline are the Saudis & this information is based only their own claims. Claims which have been greeted by a certain degree of scepticism by industry analyists. Venezuala (the fifth largest supplier of oil to the USA) has come out & said that their production is also in decline & they expect it to drop by about 15% annually. Combine all this with increased demand due to the industrialisation of China & India and you may not get the end of oil supply, but you do get the end of cheap oil. There are expectations of oil hitting $100 US per barrel within the next few years. Considering that we've already hit $70 PB this month & that only 2 years ago the price was $30 PB... Well, it doesn't sound that far fetched to me. Remember, also, that the Northen Hemisphere is about to enter winter & the immediate future doesn't look all that great either.

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    So what's going to happen over the next few years? I can't even guess how this will affect our society, a slow down of economic growth is a certainty. Job losses due to increased costs in production of everything & lower demand for consumer goods are inevitable. Increased food cost is a given also. So, we'll probably get a recession. But one from which there is little chance of recovery if we continue to rely on oil. The one thing that has scared me the most recently is what has happened in New Orleans. How quickly did society crumble there?

    So do a google search on "peak oil" & "oil crisis 2005". You'll find some conflicting information, but, mainly you'll find a lot of articles letting us know that the end of oil age is upon us. It's scary stuff.
    Last edited by Industrie; 5th September 2005 at 12:50 AM.

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    i have heard that with the current usage of oil that the world has 38 years of supply left

    take into account that china and india are starting to use more and more so that will effectively reduce the time frame

    what is the world going to do then ???

    it's not just our cars but primary industry as well which will then effect food prices as we get closer to running out of oil

    the world runs on oil so something will have to come to pass very shortly to keep this world going otherwise we are stuffed
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  3. #3
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    Default peak oil and the future

    Thought we'd done that Peak oil thing to death once before as just the usual scaremongering you find on the internet. The doomsday predictions keep failing to meet their deadline dates.

    However in saying that, there is a case for conserving as much energy stocks as we can and if prices continue to rise as the doomsdayers say, then we might all have to get on a bike.

    There was an industry survey of Australian crude stock, published a few weeks back, can't lay my hands on it, but seem to recall it was 2020 that current stock would deminish, but increased use of condensate from gas producing wells to convert to fuel and actual LPG and derivitives moving to fulfil transport needs would extend things much much further.

    No one can yet predict the impact of the development of Hydrogen and other fuel cell technology in the next 10 years.

    Perhaps we may yet discover that Nuclear fueled power stations are viable, after all we do have an abundance of uranium, just need to find a suitable location. Hmmmn.

    Ken

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    Fellow Frogger! Industrie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenfuego
    Thought we'd done that Peak oil thing to death once before as just the usual scaremongering you find on the internet.

    Ken
    You may have, but I certainly never agreed. Peak oil is not a falecy & has been openly acknowledge by people in the oil industry & various governments around the world. The decline in oil production of most nations is fact, not something from crackpot doomsday theorists on the net. As I mentioned Australia's oil production has diminished by 40% in 4 years (heres the website i got some of this information http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2005/0203.html ). As stated in my earlier post oil prices have risen from around $30 two years ago up to near $70 today. That's an icrease of 130%. In the late 90s oil prices were $10pb... That's a MASSIVE increase & not something that can be explained away
    Quote Originally Posted by Kenfuego
    as just the usual scaremongering you find on the internet.
    By the way, have you noticed a trend in oil prices? Is it really plausible that this will reverse? Even if prices stay at the current level, they're already having an impact on the global economy. There's even one (obviously poor) African nation which has had to completely suspend sales/imports of oil/petroleum. The thing is, I'm not talking about the end of oil but rather the end of cheap oil. There is a lot left, but the cost of extracting it & then refining it is much higher as it's harder to get to & of a much lesser quality.

    Ken, it would be nice if this was just scaremongering, but the evidence seems to point the other way.
    Last edited by Industrie; 5th September 2005 at 06:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Industrie
    You may have, but I certainly never agreed. Peak oil is not a falecy & has been openly acknowledge by people in the oil industry & various governments around the world. The decline in oil production of most nations is fact, not something from crackpot doomsday theorists on the net. As I mentioned Australia's oil production has diminished by 40% in 4 years (heres the website i got some of this information http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2005/0203.html ). As stated in my earlier post oil prices have risen from around $30 two years ago up to near $70 today. That's an icrease of 130%. In the late 90s oil prices were $10pb... That's a MASSIVE increase & not something that can be explained away By the way, have you noticed a trend in oil prices? Is it really plausible that this will reverse? Even if prices stay at the current level, they're already having an impact on the global economy. There's even one (obviously poor) African nation which has had to completely suspend sales/imports of oil/petroleum. The thing is, I'm not talking about the end of oil but rather the end of cheap oil. There is a lot left, but the cost of extracting it & then refining it is much higher as it's harder to get to & of a much lesser quality.

    Ken, it would be nice if this was just scaremongering, but the evidence seems to point the other way.
    Have a look at this.
    http://ww2.scripps.com/cgi-bin/archi...5&DOCNUM=20000
    Graham

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    Fellow Frogger! Industrie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GRAHAM WALLIS

    WOW!!! That sounds pretty promising. I've read a little about this oil shale, but it has mostly said that it requires more energy to extract the oil than you get back. If it is as good as it sounds, this changes everything.

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    I dont know why everyone is jumping up and down about this. Its been a long time coming and if society has not been preparing for it than i guess we are a bit dense.... Yes its going to hurt for a while, but it will recover as it has done with any big change.

    How much it will impact on society will be as a result of how well we gear up for it now. Better start soon, and get those alternative energy sources up and running to make the transition as smooth and painless as possible.

    On the car front, Toyota is going to make a killing, having put hybrid technolgy in the market already. GM and Ford have persisted in big cars/engines and are going to hurt more.

    It was always going to happen, as there is only so much oil. We will be able to prolong it with new sources such as shale, but its only putting off the inevitable.
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    After doing research I've discovered that LPG pricing is set by long term contracts, no doubt the price will go up eventually!
    Graham
    Last edited by GRAHAM WALLIS; 5th September 2005 at 12:27 PM.

  9. #9
    XTC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haakon
    I dont know why everyone is jumping up and down about this. Its been a long time coming and if society has not been preparing for it than i guess we are a bit dense.... Yes its going to hurt for a while, but it will recover as it has done with any big change.
    Yes I think the world has been a bit complacent about things .. which is the norm, cause as oil prices go up the companies that own it make every increasing amounts of money ... why would they want change ???

    As for renewable energy ... I'd say the SUN had at least a million years left in it , if only we'd spend more time working out how to harness it with greater efficiency AND how to make the damn things without chewing up resources in the process. I was reading that it takes more energy to produce a solar cell then that same cell will be able to reproduce in it's useable lifetime (at current efficiency rates). Doesn't take a genius to work out this equation is flawed. Alternatives?

    In the mean time I'll stick to 2ltr cars or less, at least the hip pocket won't be effected as much.

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  10. #10
    1000+ Posts BogMaster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XTC
    Yes I think the world has been a bit complacent about things .. which is the norm, cause as oil prices go up the companies that own it make every increasing amounts of money ... why would they want change ???

    As for renewable energy ... I'd say the SUN had at least a million years left in it , if only we'd spend more time working out how to harness it with greater efficiency AND how to make the damn things without chewing up resources in the process. I was reading that it takes more energy to produce a solar cell then that same cell will be able to reproduce in it's useable lifetime (at current efficiency rates). Doesn't take a genius to work out this equation is flawed. Alternatives?

    In the mean time I'll stick to 2ltr cars or less, at least the hip pocket won't be effected as much.

    - xTc -
    I think methane digestion would be a good alternative. Internal combustion engines can run on methane and there seems to be no shortage of the basic ingredients to produce it.

    There are alternatives which could be viable if implemented on a large scale. There is the industrial capability to put forward transitional technologies based on other resources than oil. The world has a massive amount of money tied up in the tooling to produce conventional vehicles. Any fundamental change would need to be incremental to avoid massive social and econiomic repercussions.

    The solar equation assumes current commercial technology. There are a couple of seriously disruptive solar cell technologies in the final state of commercial development and there are bound to be more in the pipeline. Also the cost is set off against an expected 25 year lifespan of a solar cell, it is not just efficiency of the photovoltaic process that determines the real energy cost of the piece of equipment.

    The sun also powers the wind and the waves...both exploitable major sources of power.

    Somewhere under our feet there is hot rock enough to power up the world and we have the technological ability to tap it.

    The real problem is that we have tied most of our commercial technology to a more finite resource in the form of oil and as you point out who would want to change that if they were rich on the basis of it.

    Worst case scenario is we ride on steam trains and ride bicyles or horses.... what a come down that would be.

    I'm also stupid enough to think that oil will not disappear any time soon. in the situation of supply and demand it pays to control the supply so that you can charge on the basis of demand.
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    Oil at the current price (US$60-70) is unsustainable, for a number of reasons.

    The first is that the supposed drivers of demand, China & India, can't afford it.

    The second is that above $40 many alternatives become viable, oil shale & oil from coal (SASOL for example), not to mention growing canola for biodiesel. There is also a succulent that the sap is almost crude oil.

    LPG & hydrogen are problematic in that there isn't as many kilojoules per litre/kilo as other fuels, so you need a bigger tank or put up with a smaller/lower range.

    I think the current price will collapse in due course to something like $30, which is what it should be given the demand. Having said that, it now costs me perhaps $15 more to fill up than it did a couple of months ago. Still the cheapest part of motoring. and I drive cars that the depreciation is close to zero.

    Cheers,

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    Are Oil company moguls and bofins like Global warming and climate change experts?? Anyone see 30 seconds last night? One scientist sys we are going to have major trouble cause all the ice is melting, the other one laughed at him?? WHo does a mere French car buff believe???
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    If more of the world switched to nuclear power the uptake of oil would be considerably less. I mean, half of australia is built on uranium, and a properly maintained nuclear plant doesn't go "bang". I assume you could use nuclear power to drive the heaters to extract the oil from shale, or even solar power (hey, heat!), which would yield a good return of oil.

    I guess the fear of radiation is more important to people than the fear of global warming as it happens quicker, and we've seen it before.

    That brings me onto another topic, which is stretching the OT a bit.

    Can you believe australia was lobbied (sp?) out of irradiating imported foodstuffs because some greenie nutbags thought it would harm humans? I'm sorry, but has anyone ever used a microwave?!

    The world is doomed anyway of course. When a country like china (with chinese levels of product/environmental regulation) mobilises a billion cars, the world will cook us all. :p
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    Industrie
    I had a look at Bill Powers Article, the fact that oil is only being extracted at a certain rate of production could well be due to the History of Australian Government intervention to protect oil revenues linked to oil production. If new oil discoveries are more heavily taxed by government then the companies will limit production.

    In the 1980's for instance because crude oil refiners were said to be brining in cheaper overseas crude instead of taking up their Australian allocations the Government of the day threatened to impose a $4 a barrell levy on imported crude. Paul Keating in his budget flagged legislation to impose a levy if refiners didn't take up their allocationof indiginous crude. Inan additional effort to maximise production of old oil the Gvt also announced a ceiling production on new oil from the Fortescue field in Bass strait of 18 Million Barrels for introduction into the domestic market 1983 -84

    This set in train some horse trading and arguments leading to a free market system and as World prices fell different arguments developed. A substantial amount of Government revenue comes from crude production and export of petroleum grade refining crude quoted as Gippsland crude and sold at a premium.

    The amount of Government "participation" may well be responsible for the flat production figures and nowhere does he quote the calculated reserves and new discoveries in the Woodside and East Timor sea, he just uses crude production figures as a basis for his peak oil for justification of the application of Hubbet's Peak.

    In other literature it is said that we have to suffer these high oil/fuel prices so that exploration/drilling will be attractive to investors and provide us with further reserves of oil.

    We do have some shale oil prospects, and there are some fields that may become viable with new extractive techniques, and if we are forced to abandon coal burning by the greenies that may be turned into composite fuel as well.

    Still can't find that article on current prediction of proven oil reserves, will post when I find it. (SWMBO may have tossed it!!)

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