SUV's dominating car sale trends or just Journalist hype!

[Kenfuego]

I have been talking with a couple of "we know the trends" types who have their ear to the ground and know the car industry and of course I have been watching for the flood of ultra cheap affordable for Mr and Mrs average income in the hope that people particularly in our crowded metropolitan areas might all change over to quiet and sedate electric vehicles that may improve city living environments. They say that cheap Hybrids are going to be the answer to tide us over for the next 20 years as they grow in volume sales. I wonder at that prediction.

I was surprised when I visited the U.K. that there was some resistance to ordinary people buying new EV's, even though fuel prices had punitive pricing that should have had them flocking to the dealers. But it is not happening there in the land that has been known for its industrial smogs. After speaking with ordinary Brits I have developed a bit of a theory how to better encourage Diesel and Petrol driving class to make the change, I think in the end ev's have to be dirt cheap with low to free finance.

Anyway this journalist at The Spectator, Australia, has been looking at similar trends in Australia and worldwide (that paper seems to be presenting a different flavour than the Guardian that is often quoted by posters on A/F) and this "investigative" journalist has had a look at a number of claims and makes the starting observation that it is SUV sales and market acceptance (his personal survey was in Ascot Vale Victoria) and the street count seems to indicate a market preference for SUV's fuelled by both Petrol and Diesel.

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I have heard of this preference especially in older people with a range of arthritic conditions as they stand higher and the seat level is easy for older people to enter and leave at that comfortable level, but I didn't think that would be the case of younger cashed up inner city living types.

There is a bit of guardian like hype in the article, albeit some difference, but I am sure that we can all read through that and make up our own minds and do our own observations, especially if any of us are trying to pick our way through the sales spin that almost swamped us all months back.

Is it Hybrid SUV's in the near future as some say I guess each of us can look around see what is in the streets of your suburb or in a country town as that is an indication of people putting money where their mouth and economic circumstances are The best indicator of sales and market trends in your town

https://www.spectator.com.au/2019/11...20cars%20crash

Ken

[Fordman]

Reading that article, it would seem the journalist is not technically able to differentiate between vehicles and engines. The proliferation of SUVs isn't shutting out electric vehicles, but they may be outselling regular cars. This is hardly news! Depending on one's own definition of an SUV, and I include smaller vehicles like Hyundai Tucson, Rav 4, Mitsubishi ASX, etc, they are obviously popular because of practicality, room, cargo space and convenience.

Why is there a 6 month waiting list for the new hybrid Rav 4? Toyota Australia has been caught off guard and astounded by the demand for them, so we can expect to see a growing presence on the streets.

Hyundai Kona Electric (small SUV), now available here, with a price premium of $30k over the similar petrol models. One would have to be quite altruistic to purchase one of these or similar vehicles. I don't think the dealers are going to be rushed in the demand.

I really don't know what all the EV fuss is about. Anyone in Australia can today go into a dealer and buy an EV, Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona, and presumably many other models. But why would we at this time, unless altruism exceeds practicality and economics? But I think we know it will gradually happen, and maybe even become the norm in a few years time.

An interesting observation from my son, who is an evaluation engineer for a major automotive importer. "Anyone who can currently live with just an electric car here, doesn't really need a car". Hmmm.

But I think the hybrid market is just hitting its straps here in Australia. It does make some sense in the long transition to full electric.

Cheers.

[Russell Hall]

Ease of entry for older people is something car designers seem to have ignored in a push for lower vehicles. Mind you some new utilities really need side steps. Perhaps the ultimate in easy access were the pre-war American cars. It was always considered necessary for a vehicle sold in Australia to have a seven inch ground clearance, which the 504 had. That car was quite easy to access. Rather than an SUV format which is often wasteful of space a more user practical approach to design might find demand.

[Kenfuego]

Ease of entry for older people is something car designers seem to have ignored in a push for lower vehicles. Mind you some new utilities really need side steps. Perhaps the ultimate in easy access were the pre-war American cars. It was always considered necessary for a vehicle sold in Australia to have a seven inch ground clearance, which the 504 had. That car was quite easy to access. Rather than an SUV format which is often wasteful of space a more user practical approach to design might find demand.

Russell
I thought the little Renault Fuego was getting a bit harder to get in and out of the driver's seat as I get older and my elderly Father in Law struggled to get in and out of the passenger seat (but never complained) as he was getting older. But for me, my son's 944 Porsche is the ultimate struggle to get in and out of the drivers seat, to the point of discomfort and contortionism, so I avoid that like the plague!
When I think about it the older American cars that I had access to, a 1927 Willys Whippet 1937 Chrysler 6 and even the early Holden FJ, seemed a better seat height, but I was much younger then and of course each had their good and bad points.

My good lady likes the Laguna seat height, but if we went to buy another newer car, I am sure she would opt for one that she didn't have to climb up to get in, I know she would like to merely enter and leave at a comfortable seat height so when the time comes to release the wallet moths, comfort and convenience will be high on our list of priorities. She was quite happy to experience the sons Porsche Cayenne when we delivered it to him in Queensland, comfortable seats. Now all I need to do is convince her that she need to test drive a Koleos or similar.

At the same time we will see what is on offer in ev's from Renault. Hope they "sell themselves"

Ken

[Haakon]

An interesting observation from my son, who is an evaluation engineer for a major automotive importer. "Anyone who can currently live with just an electric car here, doesn't really need a car". Hmmm.
.

What does that even mean...? They’re just cars, they meet the needs of plenty of people who need cars - as evidenced by the fact that people buy and use them. For example, there is a bloke on Ozreno sport with a Model 3 performance in Brisbane who has done road trips to Townsville and Adelaide... He seems to manage ok.

Hyundai Australia can’t enough Electric Kona from the factory in Korea and sell every one they can get at full price. They make sense economically apparently on a cost of ownership basis, but people just love the way they drive - zippy and quiet and more fun than fossil versions.

Toyota should have known better with the RAV4, it was the same story with the new Camry and Corolla - uptake of the hybrid variant far exceeded expectations and they imported too many non hybrids. You could probably get a good deal on non hybrid Camry...


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[Haakon]

And yes, SUVs are indeed still massively growing in sales.

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/20...-car-mark.html


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[Russell Hall]

Some people manage ok with bicycles but reality is electric cars do not have either the support infrastructure or range to meet the needs of the wide range of people who currently use motor vehicles in Australia. Hence the validity of the comment.

[DoubleChevron]

Well if i go out and look around for a family car for 5 now ..... We have large sedans that are crap ... big on the outside, tiny on the inside, wagons that are shit ... sloping backs, no inside space. People movers, some of which are quite good (but with 5 people, you should not need to drive a bus!). Leaving only a Stupid Urban Vehicle as a reasonable alternative.

If you want to know why they sell so many 4wds/pretend 4wds .... just try to find a reasonable family wagon these days .....

Electric vehicles will take over when they become financially viable .... it is as simple as that. This will be good as I will by crashed ones and fit the driveline to a DS and the the perfect usable car (as range and battery life should no longer be an issue by then).

Just as well we have such a modern decent power system that would easily cope with the masses moving the electric vehicles here in australia

[Haakon]

Some people manage ok with bicycles but reality is electric cars do not have either the support infrastructure or range to meet the needs of the wide range of people who currently use motor vehicles in Australia. Hence the validity of the comment.

That’s true that they don’t meet the needs of many that need a car. But they do meet the needs of many others who also need a car. Not everyone’s car needs are the same and an electric suits many.

This is not an either or situation. They work for many and not all, in the same way a Hilux and a corolla serves different needs.


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[Haakon]

Well if i go out and look around for a family car for 5 now ..... We have large sedans that are crap ... big on the outside, tiny on the inside, wagons that are shit ... sloping backs, no inside space. People movers, some of which are quite good (but with 5 people, you should not need to drive a bus!). Leaving only a Stupid Urban Vehicle as a reasonable alternative.

If you want to know why they sell so many 4wds/pretend 4wds .... just try to find a reasonable family wagon these days .....

Electric vehicles will take over when they become financially viable .... it is as simple as that. This will be good as I will by crashed ones and fit the driveline to a DS and the the perfect usable car (as range and battery life should no longer be an issue by then).

Just as well we have such a modern decent power system that would easily cope with the masses moving the electric vehicles here in australia

“Financial viability” has never been the only deciding factor for everyone when buying a car. Most sports cars wouldn’t exist if that were true.

But it’s true and ta hard to find a decent wagon. Chicken and egg maybe - importers don’t import wagons because everyone buys SUV, but people buy SUV because importers don’t import wagons?

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[Haakon]

LDV G10 is a decent SUV alternative at a good price... No one will buy them over a 7seat tank though because of the image. People are just easily led by automakers and a very effective marketing strategy to buy SUV.

Detroit was quite open about it back in the day when this all started that it was very profitable indeed.


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[Russell Hall]

Shane you won't buy electric parts from a wrecker. In the EU no wrecker will touch an electric and people are stuck with the wrecks. In Austria a Tesla has sat for six months in a closed yard and nobody will take it. I note Tesla themselves have finally agreed to take it and dispose of it.

[DoubleChevron]

“Financial viability” has never been the only deciding factor for everyone when buying a car. Most sports cars wouldn’t exist if that were true.

But it’s true and ta hard to find a decent wagon. Chicken and egg maybe - importers don’t import wagons because everyone buys SUV, but people buy SUV because importers don’t import wagons?

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That is hilarious. When electric cars are exciting like a muscle car or sports car .... then we can talk. And when you think about it. They probably sell in similar numbers to sports cars. I know you are going to say "tesla". I guess they sell in similar numbers to Ferrari's no doubt.

Of course the main issue is if you built a "perfect" family wagon. no middle aged women would be seen dead in it ..... She needs a towering wank tank to keep up with the Jones after all!

The majority of people cannot afford a "toy" modern car and are relegated to a family vehicle. If they need to tow, it will almost always be a 4wd as nothing else has any tow capacity.

seeya,
Shane L.

[Haakon]

Shane you won't buy electric parts from a wrecker. In the EU no wrecker will touch an electric and people are stuck with the wrecks. In Austria a Tesla has sat for six months in a closed yard and nobody will take it. I note Tesla themselves have finally agreed to take it and dispose of it.

I’d be interested in any literature you have on that, it’s quite surprising.

In the US, wrecked Tesla’s go for big money. The batteries are worth a fortune used, as are the motor assemblies. There is a healthy industry developing using the parts to retrofit into ICE cars. EV West is one example - one of their products is a kit to fit a Tesla Model S motor into Porsche 911s, although they had to hack into the Tesla software to turn down the power as it was too much for a 911.


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[Haakon]

That is hilarious. When electric cars are exciting like a muscle car or sports car .... then we can talk. And when you think about it. They probably sell in similar numbers to sports cars. I know you are going to say "tesla". I guess they sell in similar numbers to Ferrari's no doubt.

Of course the main issue is if you built a "perfect" family wagon. no middle aged women would be seen dead in it ..... She needs a towering wank tank to keep up with the Jones after all!

The majority of people cannot afford a "toy" modern car and are relegated to a family vehicle. If they need to tow, it will almost always be a 4wd as nothing else has any tow capacity.

seeya,
Shane L.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-deliveries/

https://corporate.ferrari.com/en/201...-record-year-0

https://insideevs.com/news/362236/30...orsche-taycan/




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[Russell Hall]

The reason why people are wary of the LDV is the dubious reputation of Chinese quality. How many Great Walls are still running about? The Chinese can make things very well for low prices (like their pumps) but they can make larger machinery very badly with low quality components. How many times do Chinese made bolts that look well made fail on low loads because they are made of incredibly weak material? Chinese makers can turn out excavators with light buckets and masts that bend and trucks that cannot get to the dealer yards without failures but they look well made to the casual eye. When taking delivery of a Chinese tractor one must be sure to pick up the nuts and bolts that have fallen onto the truck tray. Chinese machinery is tempting because it is so cheap, sometimes a tenth the price of Australian made, but is it the bargain it seems? Of course their utes are overpriced by the importers and don't reflect their real cost. Take $10k off the LDV's and you're still on the high side of their real value.

[jo proffi]

That is hilarious. When electric cars are exciting like a muscle car or sports car .... then we can talk.
seeya,
Shane L.

The rich people in my extended family have the Porsche, Ferrari, but they also have the Tesla.

0-100km/h in Tesla time can only be described as "exciting", especially when it beats the Ferrari..... and if it doesn't it is probably because you have 4 passengers screaming at you to slow down!!

Jo

[Kenfuego]

Of course there are big pictures and little pictures, and for me an avowed spruiker for very small electric vehicles for personal transport in our growing cities, utilitarian step up from the ev milk floats of Great Britain, just practical urban transport embraced and chosen by the public.

How does one step across the present marketing divide that I was seeing on British roads with few real responses in a country that has struggled with past smogs? On one side you have virtuosity of the rich who can afford and the vocal resistance of ordinary folk. The small business merchants, employees and their families who claim to have been manipulated in the past!

The same ordinary folk now confronted with penalty fuel costs on the very vehicles governments encouraged them to buy, fuelled by diesel. And then there is an self identified "upper elite" that insists those government encouraged vehicles be scrapped at the users costs.

Almost a self created "government dilemma", very similar to the yellow vest protests in France. Where is the austerity of the elite and political classes? let them lead by example, no expensive luxury e.v. transport, use the most ordinary and cheapest that can be produced, theoretically well within the reach of even impoverished classes.

If a cheap second-hand market can be engineered by the leading citizens quickly turning over ever cheaper electric vehicles in the companies and organisations they control perhaps such leadership will have its virtual and practical reward. Acceptance -embraced by all.

Of course the other dimension is that presented by the original article, that the markets may be ignoring the elite signalling and looking after their own interests?

The big picture is that our car market is plunging, down 7 per cent in September year on year. Car sales dropped 18 per cent while SUVs rose 1 per cent. Fancy that. SUVs outsold cars 42,000 to 25,000 and outsold hybrids and electrics by seventeen to one. Even top-end Toyota Land Cruiser SUVs were snapped up at 32 per day, price $88-136,000.

Globally, SUVs are likewise swamping car sales and here’s the point: as fast as governments bribe or wrangle people into low-emission electrics, the popular shift to SUVs more than cancels the emissions cuts. In the forced march of folly towards net zero emissions, electrics are as much a lost cause as windmills.

Electrics and hybrid sales worldwide are collapsing, led by a 34 per cent year on year downturn in September in their biggest market, China. Plug-in hybrid sales there were also smashed by 27 per cent for the quarter. Buyers are spooked by official cuts in subsidies and concerned about the cheap popular models’ short range per charge.

A Macquarie market note suggests only 8 per cent global growth of electrics this year after three years of 50 per cent increases. The demand for electrics is ‘no longer bullet-proof’, it said. Price Waterhouse Coopers, quoted in German reports, put global electrics sales in the September quarter at only 322,000, down 3 per cent year on year, and plug-in hybrids down 24 per cent. The costly electrics quest defies sense. The International Energy Agency projects that SUVs by 2040 will be canceling out the fossil-fuel savings from 150 million electric cars. This is despite all the enforced use of electrics, subsidies and grid disruption.

Petrol/diesel car sales globally have fallen slightly for two years, as if the car craze has peaked. Greenies love that because cars consume a quarter of world oil output. But within this vast auto market, fuel-hungry SUVs are displacing cars – SUV numbers have jumped from 35m to 200m in a decade.

Market share doubled from 20 to 40 per cent. Of the decade’s increase in world car sales, SUVs have grabbed 60 per cent of it. Half of US car sales are SUVs, and a third of Europe’s. SUV sales are thriving in China, India and even Africa. The CO2 emissions impact from these SUVs is startling. They’re the second-largest contributor to emissions growth since 2010, behind power generation but ahead of heavy industry (iron and steel, cement, aluminium, etc.), trucks and aviation.

So is it market resistance or market choice, or a rude "Up yours" to regulators and dictators. I know that when it comes to spending my hard earned money, all of those things matter to some degree. I save for what I buy and discounts and price have some influence but only if they suit our need.

A nice design always helps sell the idea to SWAMBO of course..


Ken

[Haakon]

The reason why people are wary of the LDV is the dubious reputation of Chinese quality. How many Great Walls are still running about? The Chinese can make things very well for low prices (like their pumps) but they can make larger machinery very badly with low quality components. How many times do Chinese made bolts that look well made fail on low loads because they are made of incredibly weak material? Chinese makers can turn out excavators with light buckets and masts that bend and trucks that cannot get to the dealer yards without failures but they look well made to the casual eye. When taking delivery of a Chinese tractor one must be sure to pick up the nuts and bolts that have fallen onto the truck tray. Chinese machinery is tempting because it is so cheap, sometimes a tenth the price of Australian made, but is it the bargain it seems? Of course their utes are overpriced by the importers and don't reflect their real cost. Take $10k off the LDV's and you're still on the high side of their real value.

I looked at one (tradie spec for a camper) as they had quite a nice spec - strong petrol engine and coil sprung rear drive.

But no side airbags, not even pretensioners on the seatbelts and a crash test where the floor pan opened up sent me back the Reno dealer to look at a Trafic... They are getting a very good reputation in the tradie world as being a decent thing though and seem to be reliable.

But my point was that most big SUVs are just as dangerous to crash and that puts paid to the idea they’re bought for that reason...

If I needed a 7 seater a Grand Picasso is about the only thing worth considering on the new market in our little redneck back water...


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[DoubleChevron]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-deliveries/

https://corporate.ferrari.com/en/201...-record-year-0

https://insideevs.com/news/362236/30...orsche-taycan/




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they are world wide statistics. Try australia only ..... I'd be happy if they sold hundreds of thousands of Teslas in Australia ... it would give me a bigger choice of parts cars in the future!

[DoubleChevron]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-deliveries/

https://corporate.ferrari.com/en/201...-record-year-0

https://insideevs.com/news/362236/30...orsche-taycan/




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they are world wide statistics. Try australia only ..... I'd be happy if they sold hundreds of thousands of Teslas in Australia ... it would give me a bigger choice of parts cars in the future!

[Haakon]

they are world wide statistics. Try australia only ..... I'd be happy if they sold hundreds of thousands of Teslas in Australia ... it would give me a bigger choice of parts cars in the future!

Who cares about Australia? The automotive industry largely doesn’t... What happens here is pretty much irrelevant as to what models become available to us - we are an afterthought for manufacturers.


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[DoubleChevron]

Who cares about Australia? The automotive industry largely doesn’t... What happens here is pretty much irrelevant as to what models become available to us - we are an afterthought for manufacturers.


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Me !!! It's where I buy my cars from

[Haakon]

That’s a coincidence - so do I! What are the odds

But it has little bearing on what sort of cars the manufacturers will develop in coming years for sale in Australia. We will just get whatever the actually relevant markets are demanding.

On topic, it’s why we have so many SUVs... The US market and to a lesser extent the EU market has seen fit to go mad for them, so the automakers market them to lesser sideline markets as well. They sure as shit wouldn’t bother making something different for us...


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[Haakon]

Shane you won't buy electric parts from a wrecker. In the EU no wrecker will touch an electric and people are stuck with the wrecks. In Austria a Tesla has sat for six months in a closed yard and nobody will take it. I note Tesla themselves have finally agreed to take it and dispose of it.

Do you know of anything beyond that one Austrian car? That one was a bit of special case with the non standard way it was handled and the soup the firies creates. But fire damaged packs are certainly something to consider.

This is more a matter of regulators needing to catch up with new issues. There are plenty of extremely hazardous wastes around from all manner of industries that are dealt with safely, I guess some new methods with be needed here. Seems to be a bureaucratic issue in Austria rather than a technical one? Wonder what the Americans do with them...

The vast majority of crashes electrics that don’t catch on fire and get stewed in a soup container are recycled easily enough. I’d caution applying conclusions from one extreme case to the millions of electric cars on the road.

This arrival has some interesting information on the economics and technical details of automotive lithium ion packs https://www.technologyreview.com/s/4...-gets-a-boost/

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