Detroit and the motor car a lesson of the times?
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Thread: Detroit and the motor car a lesson of the times?

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    Default Detroit and the motor car a lesson of the times?

    Detroit was the hub of motor car production and a symbol of the American dream, it is interesting to study its Economic decline, perhaps too many eggs in the one economic basket, but with the withdrawal of local production of motor cars looming in Australia, could any parallels be drawn for the future of the Cities/States most dependent on the motor industry.

    One authors look at the past and present effect upon the Detroit of today - a bit gloomy !! Our Australian outlook seems much better for the future. That may only be a matter of scale and economic scope of course.

    Detroit: The American Dream to a Socialist Nightmare | 1984redux

    Mods -Feel free to move thread to the murky pond.. if the motoring related subject is considered too robust for Froggy Chat!!

    Detroit, the Motor City, or “Motown” as it was popularly known in its heyday, was once the epitome of the “American Dream”, a “can do” city for a “can do” people. A thriving metropolis built on the back of the automotive industry, becoming the 4th largest city in the U.S.A by 1960 with the highest per capita income in the entire nation at that time.
    Ken

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    You live a sheltered life.
    Where are the flint knapping centres of yesteryear ?
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    Quote Originally Posted by gerry freed View Post
    You live a sheltered life.
    Where are the flint knapping centres of yesteryear ?
    Do I? I guess you know, but this was the part referring to local effects, I think Australian Motor Industry gaps will be covered by other local industries, that don't require propping up with huge periodic subsidies, but that is only one factor of economics, movement and re-training of staff within the centre/cities and the ability to secure other job opportunities is also a factor.

    timely to discuss some of the factors leading to the demise of this once great icon of automotive supremacy and whether it is merely a prelude for other similar cities or urban areas, whether it be Cleveland or Canton or Flint in the U.S.A, or Australian examples such as Geelong, Port Kembla, Elizabeth or Newcastle, or any other urban area in Western democracies that are dependent on their industrial activity to flourish.
    Geelong might have some ongoing job problems - I guess we have froggers in all those locations who might have some pertinent information to add on the subject, however I doubt those locations will go the way of Detroit...

    Ken

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    As far as the British and the rest of the world were concerned we were just a giant resource there for the taking, and that is exactly what they did. They took! When they weren't taking, they were blowing up serious parts of our country with nuclear weapons. They didn't invest one cent in Australia to benefit our nation, only themselves. Any pittance we got out of our commercial occupation was literally an unintended bonus from our overseas overseers. The fact that Australia to this day ranks highly in both innovation and expertise is not even valued by our own people, who have been serfs to a series of overseas land barons and investors since Captain Cook landed here and have been conditioned to be subservient to overseas money and power instead of continuing on from the establishment of the Commonwealth Bank in 1911, itself a rebellious attempt to cut our overseas moneylenders out of the equation.
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    Industrialisation created clusters of activity,conurbations and a certain local prosperity. Markets, technology and acess to resources change and society has no choice but to absorb the changes. The North of England and of France are full of towns and villages whise original expansion a couple of centuries ago has faded to black. The coal became too costly to extract, the mill labour too expensive as transport levelled the playing field for labour. Broken Hill prospered and when the mine lost productivity it nearly died. Closer to home Javel is now apartment blocks after Citroën went broke, Billancourt is being recycled as Renault manufacture spreads globally and Sochaux, the home of Peugeot is on the decline, the closure of Aulnay caused a near riot and so it goes on.
    We have an evolving society, otherwise we would still have stone knappers sitting around their piles of flakes bemoaning the arrival of bronze smelting that has taken over their arrow business.
    There is nothing special about Detroit, its time had come. the global scale economics of car manufacture killed it just as it exposed the delaying tactics of throwing money at the car companies in a tiny market like Australia. Today the minimum economic size of a car manufacurer is in excess of 6 million cars a year and that involves a large proportion of manufacture in low cost emerging economies.
    That is why PSA has only bought time, its problems aren't resolved and why the old hope of merger with Fiat is doing the gossip rounds.
    The important thing is to be self sufficient in food and water if the geo-politics goes bad, After that we all live in a global economy in which the work is done in the countries best placed to do it. Australia has to show some special expertise to attract investment to its high labour structure and small domestic market.
    Forget the British Empire, they have! and concentrate on membership of the Chinese one.
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    The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street still runs a large part of the world, Gerry!
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    Icon4 The Conundrum of price and quality at a cost.

    In 2003 I was standing beside a Briton in a Las Vegas line of people waiting to book into a Hotel, and he was telling me all about the advantages and opportunities of doing business in India, particularly in regards to the manufacturing of auto parts.

    Using British and US quality control they had overcome the shoddy production image and would now produce anything you wanted in small productions runs to your specifications and the main cost calculation was the metal per pound price as the basis for final cost after machining and finishing.

    What I gathered from that conversation was that in countries where the lowly workers would accept a pittance in wages, there was much profit to be made up the line, and that seemed to be the bottom, line as other countries had priced themselves out of that industry due to high wages, better working conditions, and never ending regulations to remove risky work practices and it was boom time for those countries with similar low paid and minimal regulated working conditions and China and India among others were the place where your dollar or pound got more bang for the buck and of course profit when sold in the highly developed countries.

    The curious price paid of course, and mentioned in the article is that the former auto industry workers in those countries were now receiving social service payments instead of wages and the knock on effect of this was a slow local economic decline and where there were minimum wage standards mandated the workers were unable to secure paying jobs as there were none to be had. The only growth industry was the cash without tax implications casual work or those that had to do some tasks similar to work for the dole, or perhaps re-training to be stone knappers or re-education to qualify them for higher paying jobs if and when they became available.

    So I guess the car Industry does have connotations of exploitation to produce cars in sufficient quantities and at an ever lowering price to an eager buying public in some country that could afford to pay the asking price - no questions asked of course about how that price was achieved except to demand that your car be of everlasting quality for the good money you parted with!!

    Once motor car production was seen as something of a coming of age rite for those countries that wanted to develop "strategic industries" to kick start their economies to a new level of industrialisation and in that regard it is interesting to read Larry Hartnett's book which covers much of the British United States European growth of the car manufacturing and its move into Australia with some blessing by the government of the day.

    Then it was seen as providing excellent wages and excellent opportunities, now it seems as a search for new economically depressed economies with low wage workers with some overtones every now and again to replace the wage earner worker with a machine that produces a machine that....is overseen by a button pusher.

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    The motor car manufacturers are not there to provide jobs, they are there to make cars people want to buy. Maybe you prefer the Lada or the Trabant to todays offerings!

    I suggest that you get a good book on cost accounting and develop an understanding of where those economies of scale come from. How much do you think it costs to develop and tool up to make a new model that meets today's customer expectations of quality, reliability, economy and compliance with regulations on safety, pollution etc etc. Where do you think the growth markets are for the cars - in saturated consumer economies or in emerging ones. How about giving a few billion poorer people a fair go and let them have work to earn the money to buy their first cars at prices appropriate to their economies.
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    Would you rather pay subsidies to your population towards keeping them in a job (wage subsidies) or keeping them out of a job (dole payments), Gerry? No way are all these lost Australian (or French for that matter) jobs going to ever be replaced by meaningful employment for the skilled workers and the situation will be even worse for the semi and unskilled former employees of our fast disappearing industries. They will almost all be out of work and on the dole which you seem quite philosophical about, but I guess as it's not happening to you you couldn't really care less?
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    I care very deeply and am actively involved in research in this area. The changing nature of work and its value is a serious part of the transfer of power away from Nation State governments. There is no future in paying subsidies to keep people in or out of work if there are not the taxation sources to pay the subsidies. We have some fundamental rethinks of society to do to work out how to manage a scenario in which large portions of the IQ and education distribution cannot create enough value in the eyes of the others to pay them enough to make them serious consumers beyond survival rations.
    The Australian auto industry is a minor example. It does not make economic sense to manufacture in Australia and to do so represents a loss of competitivity of the enterprises concerned or the country which is depleting its wealth generation. The issue for government with its limited powers of economic control is to position the settings of expectations in Australia to a level where the population can enjoy life with the assets of skills that they have.
    The issues are not Australian but are global. We have moved from a value set in which force was all, through one in which skill was dominant and moved to one in which intelligence and education are what matter. At each stage of social evolution, one section of the demography was advantaged and the others disadvantaged. The transition is painful and we are working our way through such a change right now.
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    I started work in early 1961 and have worked continuously in several industries from then until now. The thing that defeats me is how people will earn an income when the number of Baristas and Jims Mowers start to outnumber the people who require their services? This can't be far off with both manufacturing and retailing contracting as fast as if they had been hit with a cold spoon. Why would you buy anything from a retailer in Australia when you can buy it on line OS generally cheaper and you don't have to pay GST on anything under $1000. Why would you buy from an Australian manufacturer when you can get the same quality at a 20% discount built OS. In fact how will most Australians earn their income in the next 10-15 years? We can't all work for the Banks, Government, Education System, Child and Age Care! I've worked hard over all those years to end up where I am, I haven't amassed a fortune in that time but without the manufacturing industries I'd have been on the scrapheap long ago, and so would a multitude of other Australians. I fear for our future.
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    I commend this book to you.
    Amazon.fr - The Work of Nations: Preparing Ourselves for 21st Century Capitalis - Robert B. Reich - Livres
    It was written 22 years ago by the US "Secretary of Labour" and it presented the issues clearly to Americans. They have the great advantage that the population is hungrier and more flexible than most in preparedness for relocation, retraining and rethinking their income sources. Faced with the massive restructuring of work value that he predicted, they have responded with periods of unemployment, access to a limited dole and have created new industries, new types of job, new careers and new opportunities. This has largely been done without government intervention as in spite of its apparent power, legislation is very difficult to get through the system there.

    You can't sit at the end of the earth and expect some magician to bring work to you. You have to demonstate a good reason to be employable against global benchmarks. As usual those that can, do even if means moving state, moving country and learning a new way of earning. The French now are taking seriously the limited lifetime of skills and ways of earning and are beginning to retrain recognising that careers are not for life. The model of education and then a lifetilme of working more and more effectively through experience at a certain occupation is dead. The occupation is likely to die long before the worker. So expectations have to change. One has to retrain every decade or so and move to capture the next opportunity on the conveyor belt of change. You can't expect others to support you if your occupation has gone so that you can sit around in the folorn hope that it will somehow come back.
    You also have to forget the relevance of nationality to economics, personal and local. You buy the best quality/price you want from everywhere and you create your value against total global competition.
    Manufacturing industry is a passing phase globally and the once cheap workers in countries like China are being replaced with enthusiasm by robots, who do some many jobs better than people.
    Tyhe Jims Mowers are an important part of the solution. Loss of employment and more seriously loss of occupation is a serious loss of pêrsonal power over one's environment. One of the best of restoring that control is by running one's own enterprise and so much retraining is directed towards this end. I am watching here young people (mid 30's) losing their jobs in the auto industry - seeing it coming and teaching themsleves Internet skills. As their job goes they slip into full self employment creating websites for retailers or operating their own retail outlets on the Net. That is the way to think. A small number have packed their bags and moved to North Africa and eastern Europe where there is still a need for their experience and skills and are helping the establishment of new car factories. There are English car makers working in India helping to bring Tata up to world class and the examples of the benefits of mobility go on and on.
    Australia as a location may be come more important in the large scale industrialisation of agriculture as it adjusts to the threats and opportunities of global climate change. Tasmania is even worse than the mainland in terms of fading occupations but there are entrepreneurs building specialised agri-businesses feeding the world markets.
    Being on the 'scrap heap' is a personal decision, Being forced by changed circumstances to find a new way to be of value is a challenge to enjoy - watch and learn from the Americans.
    What do you think the flint knappers did? My guess is that they shut up shop, bought a few bronze arrow heads and went back hunting.
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    I'm not impressed by American statistics, the unemployment rate is apparently 6.1%, but the percentage of imprisoned persons is at 10%.

    The USA has 5% of the worlds population but 24% of the worlds incarcerated, coincidentally about the same percentage they use of the world's energy.

    As for your contention that being on the scrap heap is a personal decision, it's apparent you have never lost your job. After twenty, thirty years and more in one occupation, retraining is the least of a newly unemployed persons worries. You can't live on nothing whilst you are being retrained for six months or a year and besides the jolt to one's self confidence and sense of worth is shattering. You are pushing the same claptrap espoused by all who never actually had to contend with "the end of an era". To be truthful, I find your attitude rather distasteful.
    Last edited by Kim Luck; 25th July 2014 at 11:21 PM.
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    Icon6 The wonderful world of economics, taxation, and presevation of profit.

    Quote Originally Posted by gerry freed View Post
    The motor car manufacturers are not there to provide jobs, they are there to make cars people want to buy. Maybe you prefer the Lada or the Trabant to todays offerings!

    I suggest that you get a good book on cost accounting and develop an understanding of where those economies of scale come from. How much do you think it costs to develop and tool up to make a new model that meets today's customer expectations of quality, reliability, economy and compliance with regulations on safety, pollution etc etc. Where do you think the growth markets are for the cars - in saturated consumer economies or in emerging ones. How about giving a few billion poorer people a fair go and let them have work to earn the money to buy their first cars at prices appropriate to their economies.
    I guess that I have had a hands on education having machined the Holden (GMH) jigs in preparation for a model change many years past and some contact with studying the economics involved and a little bit of the history (most of which I have probably forgotten!!) and of course the movement of investment funding when it suits to gain profit advantage.

    How about giving a few billion poorer people a fair go and let them have work to earn the money to buy their first cars at prices appropriate to their economies
    On that philosophy I kinda smile a bit. Can't really see that as a reason investors choose to manufacture in poorer countries, though I guess in propaganda terms it's a good spin to put on the need to make greater profits, with less regulatory control over workplace conditions, wages, dealing with unions, minimum working hours, mandated holidays etc. But is it really so altruistic ? Depends where one starts and stands I would think.

    The danger is of course will the motoring manufacturers eventually run out of poorer countries to do all that good and at that time have to resort to creating Trabants and Lada's as an affordable volume product - take it or leave it.

    Then again in economical terms it can be handy to write off development costs in elaborate tax dodging schemes and sometimes you don't even have to produce anything that might conceivably make a profit as you move capital around our wonderful world.

    There will always be rich people that can afford the luxury car dream, for the rest of us its probably a less exciting, environmentally correct over-priced seat on an automated tram.

    Still for me it is far better to produce cars and promote dreams than create war machines and destroy dreams.

    Ken
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    The reason why car manufacturing is shifting to poorer countries is that they represent the new markets for cars and they are where the dreams lie. By giving their peasants jobs they save the money to buy the cars and their economy climbs. It gets a kick start if the government forces local content and holds out to the manufacturers the prospect of a huge market. Australia does not have one. The Chinese government is the institution that has done most to alleviate poverty, leaving the Christian charities far behind. Now the Chinese market for cars is the honey pot for the world's manufacturers and even represents the larges single market for PSA, beating France its old home.
    When those markets run out of steam the industry, like the bicycle market, will go into decline because they are feeding urbanisation with the new wealth, education and unemployment. The pollution, congestion, fuel consumption will lead to a reorganisation of transport in which multi passenger vehicles will supplaznt personal transport. This will include the evolution of overall computer control to optimise vehicle usage and safety. The public in a free market has no need to accept the Trabant and car manufacturers have nowhere to go if they do not produce what the market needs. At the moment it has no dependence on luxury, its main role is supply frill free personal transport to emerging markets, the rest is a replacement.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    I'm not impressed by American statistics, the unemployment rate is apparently 6.1%, but the percentage of imprisoned persons is at 10%.

    The USA has 5% of the worlds population but 24% of the worlds incarcerated, coincidentally about the same percentage they use of the world's energy.

    As for your contention that being on the scrap heap is a personal decision, it's apparent you have never lost your job. After twenty, thirty years and more in one occupation, retraining is the least of a newly unemployed persons worries. You can't live on nothing whilst you are being retrained for six months or a year and besides the jolt to one's self confidence and sense of worth is shattering. You are pushing the same claptrap espoused by all who never actually had to contend with "the end of an era". To be truthful, I find your attitude rather distasteful.
    The US is a bad example of a lot of things but one thing it does better than most everyone else is creating work, value and personal wealth. While others have lost major employment sectors their unemployment has risen and been resistant to reduction (see Europe), the job creation figure in the US, largely in new occupations that did not exist twenty years ago, has more than compensated.
    Attacking the messenger does nothing to alter the message.
    Yes, I lost my job when AMP did a major restructure and quit the UK and I lost it at the beginning of my career when my company went broke. However, I could see them coming and was able to review my personal skills and consolidate them to create value that I could use to help others. I have changed my occupation and industry five times in my career and taken big personal risks in doing so. What I was pioneering has now become the norm and you have to recognise it. One of the major difficulties with these industry and corporate restructures (whose frequency is increasing) is the reluctance of people to recognise that their world is about to change and to plan in advance. Complacency is the enemy of change.
    One lesson that I learned as an investor is to be very wary of businesses that exist through a government franchise. Governments come and those that try to distort free market usually end up with a dramatic shift when the real world intrudes. It is just the same with employment, the Australian car industry dragged on past its date for reform, thanks to the Button plan and there had to be a time when reality struck. Button hoped and I supported him, in the belief that it could create scale in the component industry that would outlast the assemblers. We did not predict the concentration of the industry globally or the savage economies of scale that technology made possible. Clearly the government of the day had to back out because there was no price at which the industry majors would want to be in Australia. Their managers are in general sensible managers of the capital derived from your retirement savings. Governments are not not known for their management skills, especially in a fast changing world.
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    So you are saying Gerry, that it is more productive to pay the dole than subsidise an employees wages?

    P.S: The general workforce may not be as adaptable as you and I!
    Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone............

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    So you are saying Gerry, that it is more productive to pay the dole than subsidise an employees wages?

    P.S: The general workforce may not be as adaptable as you and I!
    Don't understand the context of "productive".
    Look at it from another direction.
    Your neighbour and mate falls on hard times. You slip him a few dollars to keep him going until he sorts himself out. When he is on his feet again he may pay you back or not. it doesn't matter because he is your mate.
    You have just bought a humungus motor yacht and parked it in the marina and then he comes to you and asks for help. You have just spent up big and haven't any cash. You have lots of equity in your house, so you go the bank and borrow some more to help him out. He doesn't pay you back but you don't care because your wages are going up and so is the value of your house.
    That worked fine in the 1980's and was the government's position in respect of the whole social security system across most of the Western world. It quietly depleted capital in exchange for consumption, over which they had little control.
    At that time, the majority of the world's population had no dole, no capital, little consumption beyond subsistence and pitiful wages, if any.
    We are now changing that and several billion are catching up with our expectations of quality of life. The result is that the world's resources are strained. There isn't enough capital ie historic savings to provide the investment needed to fuel all the growth and its value is now higher in developing economies than mature ones. Perhaps worse in the medium term is that the consumption created uses more resources of energy and materials than the planet can provide and that provides a further clamp on the consumer economy.
    Today, countries like Australia have a mature economy in which they cannot increase consumption because their expectations lead them to be uncompetitive. So the 1980's model of running budget deficits, ie borrowing for social security and welfare is no longer tenable as we are not going to earn more and increase asset values to pay it back. Faced with that reality, prudence suggests that expenditure should be cut back to stop a mortgaged future that will lead to bankruptcy. Politically, the bad news that standard of living can't be sustained is not marketable in the popularist democratic process. Net result is a grab for what is available by various power groups in the community - a typical Darwinian survival of the fittest. It seems to me entirely inappropriate that in this bigger picture, people should be paid from borrowings to work, making things that neither their employer nor the buying public need.
    Certainly we should not be subsidising people's inflexibility. This planet is populated everwhere where we can survive, because when food supplies were inadequate for population clusters, people moved off and explored new territories. Today we give them a bed roll and some food in the form of the dole wave them goodbye and wish them luck in their search.

    Because of the changing nature of work this real time scenario is not sustainable. We need a new form of society to accomodate the emerging re-distribution of workers and their value. It is a fertile field for those who seek personal power by preaching dogmas, most of which have not worked in the past but which are tempting to those no longer empowered. I have not seen any neatly wrapped package that solves the problem and certainly not in the political scene globally. We will continue evolving society by incremental and local changes some of which are interesting enough to gain a bigger momentum. I have a sneaking suspicion that the leadership for change may come from the industrialists and investment managers, a highly demonised group. They have both a global perspective and quality of managment which makes them more powerful than nation state governments. Their existence depends on a customer base whose expectations are line with their capacity to create value and to consume. The automotive industry is in the forefront because its product is a major consumer item and a symbol of economic development, while its deployment of its resources is an important determinant of where jobs are positioned across the globe and what skill levels are needed.
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    Default Detroit and the motor car a lesson of the times?

    We have an evolving society, otherwise we would still have stone knappers sitting around their piles of flakes bemoaning the arrival of bronze smelting that has taken over their arrow business.
    wow - I need to get some of those bronze arrows
    do they have bluetooth?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gerry freed View Post
    Don't understand the context of "productive".
    Look at it from another direction.
    Your neighbour and mate falls on hard times. You slip him a few dollars to keep him going until he sorts himself out. When he is on his feet again he may pay you back or not. it doesn't matter because he is your mate.
    You have just bought a humungus motor yacht and parked it in the marina and then he comes to you and asks for help. You have just spent up big and haven't any cash. You have lots of equity in your house, so you go the bank and borrow some more to help him out. He doesn't pay you back but you don't care because your wages are going up and so is the value of your house.
    That worked fine in the 1980's and was the government's position in respect of the whole social security system across most of the Western world. It quietly depleted capital in exchange for consumption, over which they had little control.
    At that time, the majority of the world's population had no dole, no capital, little consumption beyond subsistence and pitiful wages, if any.
    We are now changing that and several billion are catching up with our expectations of quality of life. The result is that the world's resources are strained. There isn't enough capital ie historic savings to provide the investment needed to fuel all the growth and its value is now higher in developing economies than mature ones. Perhaps worse in the medium term is that the consumption created uses more resources of energy and materials than the planet can provide and that provides a further clamp on the consumer economy.
    Today, countries like Australia have a mature economy in which they cannot increase consumption because their expectations lead them to be uncompetitive. So the 1980's model of running budget deficits, ie borrowing for social security and welfare is no longer tenable as we are not going to earn more and increase asset values to pay it back. Faced with that reality, prudence suggests that expenditure should be cut back to stop a mortgaged future that will lead to bankruptcy. Politically, the bad news that standard of living can't be sustained is not marketable in the popularist democratic process. Net result is a grab for what is available by various power groups in the community - a typical Darwinian survival of the fittest. It seems to me entirely inappropriate that in this bigger picture, people should be paid from borrowings to work, making things that neither their employer nor the buying public need.
    Certainly we should not be subsidising people's inflexibility. This planet is populated everwhere where we can survive, because when food supplies were inadequate for population clusters, people moved off and explored new territories. Today we give them a bed roll and some food in the form of the dole wave them goodbye and wish them luck in their search.

    Because of the changing nature of work this real time scenario is not sustainable. We need a new form of society to accomodate the emerging re-distribution of workers and their value. It is a fertile field for those who seek personal power by preaching dogmas, most of which have not worked in the past but which are tempting to those no longer empowered. I have not seen any neatly wrapped package that solves the problem and certainly not in the political scene globally. We will continue evolving society by incremental and local changes some of which are interesting enough to gain a bigger momentum. I have a sneaking suspicion that the leadership for change may come from the industrialists and investment managers, a highly demonised group. They have both a global perspective and quality of managment which makes them more powerful than nation state governments. Their existence depends on a customer base whose expectations are line with their capacity to create value and to consume. The automotive industry is in the forefront because its product is a major consumer item and a symbol of economic development, while its deployment of its resources is an important determinant of where jobs are positioned across the globe and what skill levels are needed.
    The TPIP and the TPP are both examples of Sovereign power being usurped by un-elected, un-representative Industrial cartels at the expense of the ordinary citizen, your description above exactly.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    I'm not impressed by American statistics, the unemployment rate is apparently 6.1%, but the percentage of imprisoned persons is at 10%..
    the 10% imprisoned number is incorrect. if you read the WP article instead of the one condensed paragraph you got from your web search, you would find it is about1%.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    . You can't live on nothing whilst you are being retrained for six months or a year and besides the jolt to one's self confidence and sense of worth is shattering. You are pushing the same claptrap espoused by all who never actually had to contend with "the end of an era". To be truthful, I find your attitude rather distasteful.
    Ausstudy pays something around 75% of unemployment benefits and Centrelink will pay for tuition up to a value of $5000. i am not sure of the minor details, but i think it will pay more than that with a proviso that the extra is repaid from earnings when they are sufficiently high. ie similar to Hecs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    No way are all these lost Australian (or French for that matter) jobs going to ever be replaced by meaningful employment for the skilled workers and the situation will be even worse for the semi and unskilled former employees of our fast disappearing industries. They will almost all be out of work and on the dole which you seem quite philosophical about, but I guess as it's not happening to you you couldn't really care less?
    australia has, like every country, a history of industry restructurings (eg textiles and footwear) well in the past, yet our lowest unemployment rate was well below 5% in the last decade. obviously that does rather suggest that in fact people do find other jobs in changing economies.

    as a general comment, Kim, you seem to think - as many people do - that manufacturing is the only 'real' thing in an economy. that merely suggests a misunderstanding of economies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post
    The TPIP and the TPP are both examples of Sovereign power being usurped by un-elected, un-representative Industrial cartels at the expense of the ordinary citizen, your description above exactly.
    interesting line of thinking, given that negotiations have been conducted between governments. so it is hard to see how 'usurped by industry cartels' comes into the picture.
    Last edited by alexander; 29th July 2014 at 09:27 AM.

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    1000+ Posts Kim Luck's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Alexander: the 10% imprisoned number is incorrect. if you read the WP article instead of the one condensed paragraph you got from your web search, you would find it is about1%.

    From Wikepedia:
    The incarceration rate in the United States of America is the highest in the world. As of October 2013, the incarceration rate was 716 per 100,000 of the national population.[2] While the United States represents about 5 percent of the world's population, it houses around 25 percent of the world's prisoners.[3][4] Imprisonment of America's 2.3 million prisoners, costing $24,000 per inmate per year, and $5.1 billion in new prison construction, consumes $60.3 billion in budget expenditures.
    As of 2014 the high incarceration rates have started to modestly decline, although still remain the highest in the world.[5]

    Originally posted by Alexander: Austudy pays something around 75% of unemployment benefits and Centrelink will pay for tuition up to a value of $5000. i am not sure of the minor details, but i think it will pay more than that with a proviso that the extra is repaid from earnings when they are sufficiently high. ie similar to Hecs.

    A fine and dandy thing. Tons of moola and of course, the money will get paid back when (and if) the recipient ever gets a job......

    Originally posted by Alexander: australia has, like every country, a history of industry restructurings (eg textiles and footwear) well in the past, yet our lowest unemployment rate was well below 5% in the last decade. obviously that does rather suggest that in fact people do find other jobs in changing economies.

    as a general comment, Kim, you seem to think - as many people do - that manufacturing is the only 'real' thing in an economy. that merely suggests a misunderstanding of economies.


    I'm not that interested in "economies" I'm interested in peoples ability to fulfil an Australian right, the right to work and to receive fair pay.

    You also don't seem to be able to comprehend that since the introduction of the work for the dole scheme, all participants have been removed from the unemployed total and put into the full time employment figures. A trick used by both parties to lower the unemployment rate.


    And lastly: interesting line of thinking, given that negotiations have been conducted secretly between governments and the terms kept hidden from the Australian public. They are not available for examination. So it is not hard to see how 'usurped by industry cartels' comes into the picture.

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    so....
    *you have verified what i said about the incarceration rate. 716 per 100,000 is <1%, right?

    *your second point acknowledges what i stated: you dont have to live on nothing while being retrained, as there are welfare benefits paid for unemployed people retraining.

    *your third point completely ignores what i said. you said that those retrenched from the demise of manufacturing will never get a job. that is obviously not true.

    *without even delving into the truth of this "conducted in secret" story, there is no connection between government representatives talking to each other 'in secret', and "industry cartels" being involved. if you think there is, perhaps you could explain how the former implies the latter?

    re this:
    Quote Originally Posted by Kim Luck View Post

    You also don't seem to be able to comprehend that since the introduction of the work for the dole scheme, all participants have been removed from the unemployed total and put into the full time employment figures. A trick used by both parties to lower the unemployment rate.

    !
    i dont believe this is true at all. if it is, then there would be NO 'unemployed' people in a WFD age category. further, after 2015, then if this is true, then australia will have permanent near 0% unemployment, as WFD will apply to almost everyone.

    WFD placement is NOT employment. it is an obligation which must be satisfied to receive a payment from the government, so it is a stretch to see how it could make someone "full time employed". i cannot find anything which verifies your claim, but as you seem to know it true for sure, please state some reference to that effect - you must know why you believe this to be so. if i dont see one, i will assume it is made up.


    --------------------
    this the ABS definition of 'employed'.
    Employed persons comprise all those civilians aged 15 years and over who worked for one hour or more in the reference week or who had a job from which they were absent. Work is taken to mean work for one hour or more during the reference week, undertaken for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, in a job, business or farm, or without pay in a family business or farm.

    WFD is not paid work.
    note that the ABS uses standard international definitions as specified by the ILO. they are not made up by the australian government to suit political ends.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]?OpenDocument
    Last edited by alexander; 30th July 2014 at 03:07 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alexander View Post
    so....

    this the ABS definition of 'employed'.
    Employed persons comprise all those civilians aged 15 years and over who worked for one hour or more in the reference week or who had a job from which they were absent. Work is taken to mean work for one hour or more during the reference week, undertaken for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, in a job, business or farm, or without pay in a family business or farm.
    Seriously, you quote the ABS definition of "employed" as working one hour per week and don't think employment figures are being manipulated. Before anyone goes off and calls me a leftie, it's both side of politics that use these convenient figures.
    Sure, there wouldn't be many working one hour per week but I know of at least a couple of people that were expected to work two hours per day. The work didn't even pay for the petrol to get there so they quit and then couldn't get the dole because they resigned.(cheaper for the boss then to make then redundant or to sack them without cause and risk a wrongful dismissal case).
    I would wager that 20 or 30 years ago the definition of employed was vastly different and comparing today's figures with those of yesteryear is not a fair comparison.
    I don't have any proof the definition was different and really don't have the time to trawl through the net looking for evidence so call me a liar if you wish.
    It might be the ILO standard but it still doesn't make it right.

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    Regardless of it's incarceration rate, (1 in about 107, you were correct) the USA has more people in jail than in high school, and roughly 25% of the entire world's prison inmates. A proud record.

    With all due respect, I don't think a 55 year old retrenched migrant auto worker is going to be up for Austudy, Newstart allowance or any of the rest of the minefield of legislation regarding payments to unemployed people. You obviously don't have much contact with the unemployed.

    You are still lacking comprehension. I did not say that recently unemployed people will never get a job. I said that any money required to be paid back to the gummint "will get paid back when (and if) the recipient ever gets a job..." Subtle difference but not something I'd expect you to grasp immediately.

    As you can't be bothered delving into the depths of the TPP there are several things that are important to you as an Australian. Firstly, if it's contents are a secret, how do you know what your government is signing you up for? Some of it's content has been leaked around the world including information suggesting that companies will be able to sue Australia for loss of profits caused by something as simple as plain cigarette packaging. The court in which we would be sued is not going to be the International Court (Where we are already being sued by Phillip Morris) but a shonky court convened by overseas trade organisations. Hardly somewhere I would be happy to have my taxes ripped off.

    And as far as work for the dole people being classed as employed, rather than unemployed, I have made the assertion based on information gleaned over several years. If it is not still being done and you can prove it's not, I'll be happy to accept your proof.

    Mark Twain said it: " Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable."
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